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|**ARIMA** (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) | Combines AR, differencing (I), andMAfor stationary or differenced series | Univariate forecasting (stock prices, sales, economics) |1. For linear trends with weak seasonality2. Requires (p,d,q) tuning3. Sensitive to missing values |
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|**Holt-Winters** (Triple Exponential Smoothing) | Exponential smoothing with level, trend, and seasonal components | Data with clear trend & seasonality (monthly sales, power demand) |1. Handles additive/multiplicative seasonality2. Weights recent data higher3. Simple implementation |
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|**Exponential Smoothing**| Weighted average of history with exponentially decaying weights | Trending but non-seasonal data (short-term demand) |1. Few parameters, simple computation2. Suitable for stable/slow-changing series3. Extensible to double/triple smoothing |
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|**Naive Forecaster**| Uses last observation asnext prediction (simplest baseline) | Benchmarking or data with no clear pattern |1. No training needed2. Sensitive to sudden changes3. Seasonal variant uses prior season value |
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|**STL Forecaster**| Decomposes series into trend, seasonal, residual; forecasts components | Complex seasonality/trends (climate, traffic) |1. Handles non-fixed seasonality2. Robust to outliers3. Components can use other models |
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|**Gaussian HMM**| Hidden states generate observations; each state follows Gaussian distribution | State sequence prediction/classification (speech, finance) |1. Models temporal state transitions2. Observations independent per state3. Requires state count |
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|**GMMHMM**| Extends Gaussian HMM; each state uses Gaussian Mixture Model | Multi-modal observation scenarios (motion recognition, biosignals) |1. More flexible than single Gaussian2. Higher complexity3. Requires GMM component count |
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|**STRAY** (Search for Outliers using Random Projection and Adaptive Thresholding) | Uses SVD to detect anomalies in high-dimensional time series | High-dimensional anomaly detection (sensor networks, IT monitoring) |1. No distribution assumption2. Handles high dimensions3. Sensitive to global anomalies |
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|**ARIMA** (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) | Combines AR, differencing (I), andMAfor stationary or differenced series | Univariate forecasting (stock prices, sales, economics) |1. For linear trends with weak seasonality<br>2. Requires (p,d,q) tuning<br>3. Sensitive to missing values |
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|**Holt-Winters** (Triple Exponential Smoothing) | Exponential smoothing with level, trend, and seasonal components | Data with clear trend & seasonality (monthly sales, power demand) |1. Handles additive/multiplicative seasonality<br>2. Weights recent data higher<br>3. Simple implementation |
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|**Exponential Smoothing**| Weighted average of history with exponentially decaying weights | Trending but non-seasonal data (short-term demand) |1. Few parameters, simple computation<br>2. Suitable for stable/slow-changing series<br>3. Extensible to double/triple smoothing |
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|**Naive Forecaster**| Uses last observation asnext prediction (simplest baseline) | Benchmarking or data with no clear pattern |1. No training needed<br>2. Sensitive to sudden changes<br>3. Seasonal variant uses prior season value |
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|**STL Forecaster**| Decomposes series into trend, seasonal, residual; forecasts components | Complex seasonality/trends (climate, traffic) |1. Handles non-fixed seasonality<br>2. Robust to outliers<br>3. Components can use other models |
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|**Gaussian HMM**| Hidden states generate observations; each state follows Gaussian distribution | State sequence prediction/classification (speech, finance) |1. Models temporal state transitions<br>2. Observations independent per state<br>3. Requires state count |
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|**GMMHMM**| Extends Gaussian HMM; each state uses Gaussian Mixture Model | Multi-modal observation scenarios (motion recognition, biosignals) |1. More flexible than single Gaussian<br>2. Higher complexity<br>3. Requires GMM component count |
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|**STRAY** (Search for Outliers using Random Projection and Adaptive Thresholding) | Uses SVD to detect anomalies in high-dimensional time series | High-dimensional anomaly detection (sensor networks, IT monitoring) |1. No distribution assumption<br>2. Handles high dimensions<br>3. Sensitive to global anomalies |
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**Built-in Time Series Large Models:**
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| Model Name | Core Concept | Applicable Scenarios | Key Features |
|**Timer-XL**| Long-context time series large model pretrained on massive industrial data | Complex industrial forecasting requiring ultra-long history (energy, aerospace, transport) |1. Supports input of tens of thousands of time points2. Covers non-stationary, multivariate, and covariate scenarios3. Pretrained on trillion-scale high-quality industrial IoT data |
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|**Timer-Sundial**| Generative foundation model with"Transformer + TimeFlow" architecture | Zero-shot forecasting requiring uncertainty quantification (finance, supply chain, renewable energy) |1. Strong zero-shot generalization; supports point & probabilistic forecasting2. Flexible analysis of any prediction distribution statistic3. Innovative flow-matching architecture for efficient non-deterministic sample generation |
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|**Chronos-2**| Universal time series foundation model based on discrete tokenization | Rapid zero-shot univariate forecasting; scenarios enhanced by covariates (promotions, weather) |1. Powerful zero-shot probabilistic forecasting2. Unified multi-variable & covariate modeling (strict input requirements): a. Future covariate names ⊆ historical covariate names b. Each historical covariate length = target length c. Each future covariate length = prediction length3. Efficient encoder-only structure balancing performance and speed |
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|**Timer-XL**| Long-context time series large model pretrained on massive industrial data | Complex industrial forecasting requiring ultra-long history (energy, aerospace, transport) |1. Supports input of tens of thousands of time points<br>2. Covers non-stationary, multivariate, and covariate scenarios<br>3. Pretrained on trillion-scale high-quality industrial IoT data |
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|**Timer-Sundial**| Generative foundation model with"Transformer + TimeFlow" architecture | Zero-shot forecasting requiring uncertainty quantification (finance, supply chain, renewable energy) |1. Strong zero-shot generalization; supports point & probabilistic forecasting<br>2. Flexible analysis of any prediction distribution statistic<br>3. Innovative flow-matching architecture for efficient non-deterministic sample generation |
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|**Chronos-2**| Universal time series foundation model based on discrete tokenization | Rapid zero-shot univariate forecasting; scenarios enhanced by covariates (promotions, weather) |1. Powerful zero-shot probabilistic forecasting<br>2. Unified multi-variable & covariate modeling (strict input requirements):<br> a. Future covariate names ⊆ historical covariate names<br> b. Each historical covariate length = target length<br> c. Each future covariate length = prediction length<br>3. Efficient encoder-only structure balancing performance and speed |
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|**Moirai 2.0**| Lightweight decoder-only Patch Transformer with a single patch size, multi-token prediction, and multi-quantile outputs | Zero-shot univariate forecasting where model size and inference efficiency are important, such as industrial monitoring, energy load, and equipment metrics |1. Approximately 11.4M parameters<br>2. Predicts multiple patches per decoding step to reduce autoregressive overhead forlong horizons<br>3. Outputs nine quantiles (0.1–0.9) and uses the p50 median as the point forecast<br>4. Uses instance normalization to mitigate distribution shift across series<br>5. Does not support multivariate targets or covariates |
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|**Toto 2.0**| Decoder-only Patch Transformer alternating causal temporal attention and variable attention to jointly model temporal and variable dimensions | Zero-shot multivariate forecasting for observability metrics, including joint forecasting of CPU, memory, and network traffic |1. Supports univariate and multivariate target forecasting<br>2. Outputs fixed quantiles from0.1 to 0.9and uses the p50 median as the point forecast<br>3. Supports cached block decoding for efficient scaling to longer forecast horizons<br>4. Covariates are not currently supported |
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### 4.4 Deleting Models
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@@ -656,4 +663,4 @@ To add a new built-in custom model to AINode (using Chronos2 as example):
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