diff --git a/src/controllers/replica.rs b/src/controllers/replica.rs
index 366bc2b..a042b96 100644
--- a/src/controllers/replica.rs
+++ b/src/controllers/replica.rs
@@ -46,6 +46,27 @@ mod tests;
 
 use resources::*;
 
+/// True when no schema migration is currently in flight for this replica
+/// — i.e. the sweep can safely delete the previous Active restore without
+/// pulling the rug out from under a running `pg_dump | psql`.
+///
+/// Returns `true` when `persistent_schemas` is unset (no migration ever
+/// runs) or when `schemaMigrationPhase` is anything other than `active`.
+/// Coded as "not in flight" rather than enumerating terminal phases so
+/// future additions (the operator's set of phase labels has grown over
+/// time: `complete`, `partial`, `failed: <reason>`, `timeout-skipped`)
+/// don't silently block the sweep.
+pub fn persistent_schemas_migration_settled(replica: &PostgresPhysicalReplica) -> bool {
+	if replica.spec.persistent_schemas.is_none() {
+		return true;
+	}
+	let phase = replica
+		.status
+		.as_ref()
+		.and_then(|s| s.schema_migration_phase.as_deref());
+	!matches!(phase, Some("active"))
+}
+
 /// Generate a random password for analytics credentials.
 pub(crate) fn generate_password() -> String {
 	let mut rng = rand::rng();
@@ -292,27 +313,22 @@ pub async fn reconcile(replica: Arc<PostgresPhysicalReplica>, ctx: Arc<Context>)
 		.as_ref()
 		.and_then(|s| s.current_restore.as_deref());
 	if let Some(current) = current_restore_name {
-		// Allow the sweep when no migration is in flight: phase=None means
-		// either no migration has run since this replica was first
-		// reconciled, or a previous sweep cleared it. In both cases the
-		// gate's purpose (don't delete the source while a migration depends
-		// on it) is satisfied. Without this branch, a replica with
-		// persistent_schemas configured that hits the too-many-restores
-		// guardrail can't recover automatically: the guardrail blocks new
-		// restores, no switchover runs, no path sets phase=complete, and
-		// the sweep stays gated forever.
-		let migration_complete = if replica.spec.persistent_schemas.is_some() {
-			let phase = replica
-				.status
-				.as_ref()
-				.and_then(|s| s.schema_migration_phase.as_deref());
-			// "partial" counts as complete for sweep purposes: the
-			// migration Job ran and we accepted the result; we no longer
-			// depend on the previous restore being around.
-			matches!(phase, None | Some("complete") | Some("partial"))
-		} else {
-			true
-		};
+		// Gate the sweep on "migration isn't actively in flight": the
+		// gate's only purpose is to keep us from deleting the migration's
+		// source restore while pg_dump | psql still has it open. Any
+		// terminal phase (`complete`, `partial`, `timeout-skipped`,
+		// `failed: …`) — and `None` (no migration has run since this
+		// replica was first reconciled, or a previous sweep cleared the
+		// field) — all mean "no migration in flight, sweep is safe".
+		//
+		// Coded as "not in flight" rather than enumerating every terminal
+		// phase so future additions don't have to remember to update this
+		// gate. Previously this was an allow-list of `complete`/`partial`,
+		// which silently blocked the sweep when `timeout-skipped` was
+		// added — the replica then accumulated stale Active restores,
+		// hit the too-many-restores guardrail, and couldn't recover
+		// automatically.
+		let migration_complete = persistent_schemas_migration_settled(&replica);
 
 		let grace_period =
 			SignedDuration::try_from(replica.spec.switchover_grace_period.0).unwrap_or_default();
diff --git a/src/controllers/replica/tests.rs b/src/controllers/replica/tests.rs
index ff68259..80b7f69 100644
--- a/src/controllers/replica/tests.rs
+++ b/src/controllers/replica/tests.rs
@@ -3,7 +3,84 @@ use kube::api::ObjectMeta;
 
 use crate::{kopia::Snapshot, types::*, util::TimeSpan};
 
-use super::{generate_password, resources::build_snapshot_list_job};
+use super::{
+	generate_password, persistent_schemas_migration_settled, resources::build_snapshot_list_job,
+};
+
+fn make_replica(
+	persistent_schemas: Option<Vec<String>>,
+	schema_migration_phase: Option<String>,
+) -> PostgresPhysicalReplica {
+	PostgresPhysicalReplica {
+		metadata: ObjectMeta {
+			name: Some("test".into()),
+			namespace: Some("default".into()),
+			..Default::default()
+		},
+		spec: PostgresPhysicalReplicaSpec {
+			kopia_secret_ref: SecretReference {
+				name: Some("creds".into()),
+				namespace: None,
+			},
+			snapshot_filter: None,
+			schedule: "0 * * * *".into(),
+			schedule_jitter: TimeSpan(jiff::Span::new()),
+			minimum_ttl: None,
+			switchover_grace_period: TimeSpan(jiff::Span::new()),
+			analytics_username: "analytics".into(),
+			storage_class: None,
+			storage_size_override: None,
+			resources: None,
+			service_annotations: None,
+			pod_annotations: None,
+			affinity: None,
+			tolerations: vec![],
+			read_only: true,
+			postgres_extra_config: None,
+			notifications: vec![],
+			persistent_schemas,
+			storage_size_maximum: k8s_openapi::apimachinery::pkg::api::resource::Quantity(
+				"2Ti".to_string(),
+			),
+		},
+		status: schema_migration_phase.map(|p| PostgresPhysicalReplicaStatus {
+			schema_migration_phase: Some(p),
+			..Default::default()
+		}),
+	}
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn migration_settled_when_persistent_schemas_unset() {
+	let replica = make_replica(None, None);
+	assert!(persistent_schemas_migration_settled(&replica));
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn migration_settled_when_no_status() {
+	let replica = make_replica(Some(vec!["dbt".into()]), None);
+	assert!(persistent_schemas_migration_settled(&replica));
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn migration_settled_in_terminal_phases() {
+	for phase in ["complete", "partial", "timeout-skipped", "failed: stuff"] {
+		let replica = make_replica(Some(vec!["dbt".into()]), Some(phase.into()));
+		assert!(
+			persistent_schemas_migration_settled(&replica),
+			"phase {phase:?} should let sweep proceed"
+		);
+	}
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn migration_blocks_sweep_only_when_active() {
+	let replica = make_replica(Some(vec!["dbt".into()]), Some("active".into()));
+	assert!(
+		!persistent_schemas_migration_settled(&replica),
+		"active phase must block sweep so we don't delete the migration source"
+	);
+}
 
 #[test]
 fn generate_password_length_and_charset() {