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Feature: Improve forecasting models and model selection process #4

@chripiermarini

Description

@chripiermarini

Description

The current system relies on simple baseline forecasting models (naive, seasonal, rolling average), and model selection is based on a single metric (WAPE).

The goal of this issue is to improve both:

  • the forecasting model library
  • the robustness and flexibility of the model selection process

Goals

  • Expand the set of forecasting models
  • Improve evaluation and selection logic
  • Maintain modularity and extensibility of the forecasting layer

Proposed Improvements

Add more advanced models, such as:

  • Exponential Smoothing (ETS)
  • ARIMA / SARIMA
  • (Optional) tree-based models (e.g. gradient boosting)

Extend evaluation metrics:

  • RMSE
  • MAE
  • MAPE
  • WAPE (already implemented)

Improve model selection:

  • Allow configurable metric selection
  • Explore multi-metric ranking or weighted scoring
  • (Optional) introduce rolling / time-based validation

Acceptance Criteria

  • At least 1–2 new forecasting models implemented
  • Model selection supports configurable metric input
  • Evaluation is consistent across all models
  • Code remains modular and easy to extend

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