|
229 | 229 | " file_path=str(file_path)\n", |
230 | 230 | " )\n" |
231 | 231 | ] |
| 232 | + }, |
| 233 | + { |
| 234 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 235 | + "id": "11", |
| 236 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 237 | + "source": [ |
| 238 | + "## Analysis on the Backtest Windows" |
| 239 | + ] |
| 240 | + }, |
| 241 | + { |
| 242 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 243 | + "execution_count": null, |
| 244 | + "id": "12", |
| 245 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 246 | + "outputs": [], |
| 247 | + "source": [ |
| 248 | + "import numpy as np\n", |
| 249 | + "from typing import Dict, Tuple\n", |
| 250 | + "import pandas as pd\n", |
| 251 | + "from investing_algorithm_framework import create_markdown_table, BacktestDateRange\n", |
| 252 | + "from IPython.display import Markdown, display\n", |
| 253 | + "\n", |
| 254 | + "\n", |
| 255 | + "def show_backtest_windows_analysis(\n", |
| 256 | + " data: Dict[str, Tuple[BacktestDateRange, pd.DataFrame]],\n", |
| 257 | + "):\n", |
| 258 | + " \"\"\"\n", |
| 259 | + " Show analysis of backtest windows. Each entry in `data` should map\n", |
| 260 | + " a label to a tuple of (date_range, ohlcv_dataframe).\n", |
| 261 | + "\n", |
| 262 | + " Args:\n", |
| 263 | + " data (Dict[str, Tuple[BacktestDateRange, pd.DataFrame]]): Mapping\n", |
| 264 | + " of labels (backtest window identifiers) to\n", |
| 265 | + " (date_range, ohlcv_dataframe)\n", |
| 266 | + "\n", |
| 267 | + " Returns:\n", |
| 268 | + " List[Dict]: List of detailed analysis dictionaries for each window\n", |
| 269 | + " \"\"\"\n", |
| 270 | + " summary_data = []\n", |
| 271 | + " detailed_analysis = []\n", |
| 272 | + "\n", |
| 273 | + " for key, (date_range, df) in data.items():\n", |
| 274 | + " sliced_data = df[date_range.start_date:date_range.end_date].copy()\n", |
| 275 | + "\n", |
| 276 | + " if sliced_data.empty:\n", |
| 277 | + " continue\n", |
| 278 | + "\n", |
| 279 | + " # Calculate comprehensive metrics\n", |
| 280 | + " sliced_data['returns'] = sliced_data['Close'].pct_change().dropna()\n", |
| 281 | + "\n", |
| 282 | + " start_price = sliced_data['Close'].iloc[0]\n", |
| 283 | + " end_price = sliced_data['Close'].iloc[-1]\n", |
| 284 | + " total_return = (end_price / start_price - 1) * 100\n", |
| 285 | + "\n", |
| 286 | + " daily_returns = sliced_data['returns'] * 100\n", |
| 287 | + " volatility = daily_returns.std() * np.sqrt(365)\n", |
| 288 | + " mean_daily_return = daily_returns.mean()\n", |
| 289 | + " sharpe_ratio = (mean_daily_return * 365) / volatility if volatility > 0 else 0\n", |
| 290 | + "\n", |
| 291 | + " # Drawdown analysis\n", |
| 292 | + " rolling_max = sliced_data['Close'].cummax()\n", |
| 293 | + " drawdown = (sliced_data['Close'] / rolling_max - 1) * 100\n", |
| 294 | + " max_drawdown = drawdown.min()\n", |
| 295 | + "\n", |
| 296 | + " # Volatility regimes\n", |
| 297 | + " high_vol_days = (daily_returns.abs() > daily_returns.abs().quantile(0.8)).sum()\n", |
| 298 | + " low_vol_days = (daily_returns.abs() < daily_returns.abs().quantile(0.2)).sum()\n", |
| 299 | + "\n", |
| 300 | + " # Trend analysis (count of data points, not calendar days)\n", |
| 301 | + " up_periods = (daily_returns > 0).sum()\n", |
| 302 | + " down_periods = (daily_returns < 0).sum()\n", |
| 303 | + " total_periods = len(sliced_data)\n", |
| 304 | + "\n", |
| 305 | + " # Duration in calendar days\n", |
| 306 | + " duration_days = (date_range.end_date - date_range.start_date).days\n", |
| 307 | + " start_date_str = date_range.start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')\n", |
| 308 | + " end_date_str = date_range.end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')\n", |
| 309 | + "\n", |
| 310 | + " summary_data.append({\n", |
| 311 | + " \"window\": key,\n", |
| 312 | + " \"date_range\": f\"{start_date_str} to {end_date_str}\",\n", |
| 313 | + " \"days\": str(duration_days),\n", |
| 314 | + " \"avg_daily_return\": f\"{mean_daily_return:.3f}%\",\n", |
| 315 | + " \"cumulative_return\": f\"{total_return:.2f}%\",\n", |
| 316 | + " \"volatility_ann\": f\"{volatility:.2f}%\",\n", |
| 317 | + " \"sharpe_ratio\": f\"{sharpe_ratio:.2f}\",\n", |
| 318 | + " \"max_drawdown\": f\"{max_drawdown:.2f}%\",\n", |
| 319 | + " \"up_periods\": f\"{up_periods} ({up_periods/total_periods*100:.1f}%)\",\n", |
| 320 | + " \"down_periods\": f\"{down_periods} ({down_periods/total_periods*100:.1f}%)\",\n", |
| 321 | + " \"high_vol_periods\": f\"{high_vol_days} ({high_vol_days/total_periods*100:.1f}%)\",\n", |
| 322 | + " \"low_vol_periods\": f\"{low_vol_days} ({low_vol_days/total_periods*100:.1f}%)\"\n", |
| 323 | + " })\n", |
| 324 | + "\n", |
| 325 | + " # Detailed analysis for each period\n", |
| 326 | + " detailed_analysis.append({\n", |
| 327 | + " 'name': key,\n", |
| 328 | + " 'total_return': total_return,\n", |
| 329 | + " 'volatility': volatility,\n", |
| 330 | + " 'sharpe_ratio': sharpe_ratio,\n", |
| 331 | + " 'max_drawdown': max_drawdown,\n", |
| 332 | + " 'up_periods': up_periods,\n", |
| 333 | + " 'down_periods': down_periods,\n", |
| 334 | + " 'high_vol_periods': high_vol_days,\n", |
| 335 | + " 'low_vol_periods': low_vol_days,\n", |
| 336 | + " 'duration_days': duration_days,\n", |
| 337 | + " 'total_periods': total_periods,\n", |
| 338 | + " 'mean_daily_return': mean_daily_return,\n", |
| 339 | + " 'start_price': start_price,\n", |
| 340 | + " 'end_price': end_price\n", |
| 341 | + " })\n", |
| 342 | + "\n", |
| 343 | + " # Create and display the markdown table\n", |
| 344 | + " table = create_markdown_table(summary_data)\n", |
| 345 | + " display(Markdown(table))\n", |
| 346 | + "\n", |
| 347 | + " return detailed_analysis\n", |
| 348 | + "\n", |
| 349 | + "\n", |
| 350 | + "# Prepare data for analysis - use BTC as reference asset\n", |
| 351 | + "btc_data = in_sample_data[\"BTC\"][\"2h\"][\"data\"]\n", |
| 352 | + "\n", |
| 353 | + "# Create analysis data dictionary from rolling backtest windows\n", |
| 354 | + "analysis_data = {}\n", |
| 355 | + "for i, window in enumerate(rolling_backtest_windows):\n", |
| 356 | + " train_range = window[\"train_range\"]\n", |
| 357 | + " analysis_data[f\"Window {i+1} (Train)\"] = (train_range, btc_data)\n", |
| 358 | + "\n", |
| 359 | + " if \"test_range\" in window:\n", |
| 360 | + " test_range = window[\"test_range\"]\n", |
| 361 | + " analysis_data[f\"Window {i+1} (Test)\"] = (test_range, btc_data)\n", |
| 362 | + "\n", |
| 363 | + "# Show the analysis\n", |
| 364 | + "detailed_results = show_backtest_windows_analysis(\n", |
| 365 | + " data=analysis_data,\n", |
| 366 | + ")\n" |
| 367 | + ] |
232 | 368 | } |
233 | 369 | ], |
234 | 370 | "metadata": { |
|
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