Request: Framework for decisions under extreme uncertainty

[henu-wang]

Hey everyone! I love the frameworks in this repo but I'm looking for something specifically designed for decisions where you have almost zero reliable information.

Real examples:

• Should I invest in an emerging technology that might be transformative or might be hype?
• Should I move to a country I've never visited for a job opportunity?
• Should I pivot my startup based on limited customer feedback?

The existing frameworks work great when you have decent data, but what about when you're essentially flying blind?

I've been using a combination of:

1. Minimax Regret - minimize the maximum possible regret
2. Reversibility check - prefer decisions that can be undone
3. Small bets - test with minimal commitment before going all-in

The concept of 'margin of safety' from investing applies well here too - master investors like Buffett always build in a buffer for uncertainty. You can explore more of these principles at KeepRule.

Would love to hear how others handle decisions under deep uncertainty. Any frameworks or mental models that help?