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| 1 | +Fraying-Model Fragment-Count Distribution Predictions |
| 2 | +===================================================== |
| 3 | + |
| 4 | +This document states testable predictions about the fragment-count |
| 5 | +distribution L_D(k) for knot diagrams, derived from the combinatorics |
| 6 | +of Kauffman bracket state sums. |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +Definitions |
| 9 | +----------- |
| 10 | + |
| 11 | +For an n-crossing knot diagram D, the 2^n global resolution states are |
| 12 | +obtained by choosing one of two smoothings at each crossing. Each state |
| 13 | +yields a collection of k disjoint simple closed curves ("fragments"). |
| 14 | + |
| 15 | + L_D(k) = |{ states s : s produces exactly k fragments }| |
| 16 | + |
| 17 | +The tropical summary is: |
| 18 | + support(L_D) = { k : L_D(k) > 0 } |
| 19 | + min, max = extrema of support |
| 20 | + |support| = cardinality |
| 21 | + class = "spread" if |support| > 1, "collapse" if |support| = 1 |
| 22 | + |
| 23 | +Prediction 1 — No Collapse for Nontrivial Knots |
| 24 | +------------------------------------------------ |
| 25 | + |
| 26 | +Every prime knot with crossing number >= 3 has |support| > 1 (is "spread"). |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +Rationale: For an alternating prime knot, the all-A state (Seifert state) |
| 29 | +produces a number of circles related to the genus, while the all-B state |
| 30 | +produces a different count. The minimum and maximum circle counts in |
| 31 | +the state sum always differ for nontrivial knots. |
| 32 | + |
| 33 | +Prediction 2 — Trefoil (3_1) Has Support {1, 2, 3} |
| 34 | +--------------------------------------------------- |
| 35 | + |
| 36 | +The trefoil should produce states with 1, 2, or 3 circles. |
| 37 | + |
| 38 | + L_{3_1}(1) = 3 (three states yield 1 circle) |
| 39 | + L_{3_1}(2) = 4 (four states yield 2 circles) |
| 40 | + L_{3_1}(3) = 1 (one state yields 3 circles) |
| 41 | + |
| 42 | +Verification: the all-0 state (smoothing 0 at every crossing) gives 2 |
| 43 | +circles, and the all-1 state gives 3 circles. Three mixed states give |
| 44 | +1 circle each. This matches the Kauffman bracket structure for the |
| 45 | +trefoil. |
| 46 | + |
| 47 | +Prediction 3 — Topology Predicts the Distribution |
| 48 | +-------------------------------------------------- |
| 49 | + |
| 50 | +Diagrams of different knot types at the same crossing number should |
| 51 | +produce different fragment-count histograms L_D(k). Specifically: |
| 52 | + |
| 53 | + 5_1 vs 5_2 — different histograms, likely different supports |
| 54 | + 6_1 vs 6_2 — different histograms |
| 55 | + 6_1 vs 6_3 — different histograms |
| 56 | + 6_2 vs 6_3 — different histograms |
| 57 | + 7_i vs 7_j — different histograms for i ≠ j (all 21 pairs) |
| 58 | + |
| 59 | +This is the central testable claim: the fragment-count distribution is a |
| 60 | +topological invariant of the diagram (up to diagram equivalence), and |
| 61 | +distinct knot types generally have distinct distributions. |
| 62 | + |
| 63 | +Prediction 4 — Torus Knots Have Wider Support |
| 64 | +---------------------------------------------- |
| 65 | + |
| 66 | +Torus knots T(2, 2k+1) have wider support (larger |support|) than |
| 67 | +non-torus knots at the same crossing number. |
| 68 | + |
| 69 | + 5_1 (torus) — wider support than 5_2 (twist knot) |
| 70 | + 7_1 (torus) — wider support than 7_2, ..., 7_7 |
| 71 | + |
| 72 | +Rationale: the Seifert state of a torus knot produces the minimum |
| 73 | +number of Seifert circles (k+1 for T(2,2k+1)), while the all-opposite |
| 74 | +state produces a larger count. The spread between min and max is |
| 75 | +maximised for torus knots among alternating knots at a given crossing |
| 76 | +number. |
| 77 | + |
| 78 | +Prediction 5 — Support Range Grows with Crossing Number |
| 79 | +-------------------------------------------------------- |
| 80 | + |
| 81 | +For the torus knot series T(2, 2k+1): |
| 82 | + 3_1: |support| around 3 |
| 83 | + 5_1: |support| around 4-5 |
| 84 | + 7_1: |support| around 5-6 |
| 85 | + |
| 86 | +The support range (max - min + 1) grows roughly linearly with crossing |
| 87 | +number for torus knots. |
| 88 | + |
| 89 | +Prediction 6 — The Distribution Refines the Jones Polynomial |
| 90 | +------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 91 | + |
| 92 | +Two knots can share the same Jones polynomial but have different |
| 93 | +fragment-count distributions. The L_D(k) histogram retains state-level |
| 94 | +information that the polynomial (which sums over states with signs and |
| 95 | +weights) discards. This makes L_D(k) a finer invariant in some cases. |
| 96 | + |
| 97 | +Expected Outcomes |
| 98 | +----------------- |
| 99 | + |
| 100 | +Running the analysis on all prime knots up to 7 crossings should show: |
| 101 | + - 14 diagrams, all classified as "spread" |
| 102 | + - 25 pairwise comparisons (1 + 3 + 21 for n=5,6,7) |
| 103 | + - Majority of pairs have different supports |
| 104 | + - All pairs have different histograms (stronger claim) |
| 105 | + - Torus knots (3_1, 5_1, 7_1) have the widest support at each cn |
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