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feat(schema): W8+W9 — cert decay (30-day window) + revocation detection
Closes design doc open questions #1 + #2. W8 (decay/sliding window) — mv_proven_certificates_recent: Computes PROVEN status over the last 30 days only (using started_at >= now64(3) - INTERVAL 30 DAY). A (class, prover) pair that was historically proven but has no recent activity shows status_30d='pending' — subject to revocation. W9 (revocation detection) — mv_cert_revocations: INNER JOIN all-time vs 30-day certs, surfaces rows where status_all_time='proven' AND status_30d='pending'. These are candidates for cert revocation notification. Current snapshot (2026-04-05): 0 revocations, 7 pairs proven in both windows (the entire historical data was generated today, so all activity falls inside the 30-day window). Downstream consumers can poll mv_cert_revocations via a new endpoint (follow-up) or directly via ClickHouse HTTP to emit audit events when a cert flips from proven → pending over the recent window. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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‎connectors/test-infra/seed/clickhouse-init.sql‎

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@@ -394,3 +394,57 @@ SELECT
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pa.obligation_class, pa.prover_used, pa.attempt_id, pa.obligation_id,
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pa.outcome, pa.duration_ms, pa.confidence, pa.started_at, pa.repo, pa.file
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FROM verisim.proof_attempts AS pa;
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-- SPDX-License-Identifier: PMPL-1.0-or-later
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-- W8: PROVEN cert with 30-day sliding window.
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-- W9: Revocation detection — compares all-time vs recent status.
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--
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-- mv_proven_certificates_recent: PROVEN status computed over the last
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-- 30 days only, not all-time. A cert's "recent status" can disagree
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-- with its all-time status when recent attempts have tanked the
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-- success rate — those are revocation candidates.
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CREATE VIEW IF NOT EXISTS verisim.mv_proven_certificates_recent AS
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SELECT
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pa.obligation_class AS obligation_class,
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pa.prover_used AS prover_used,
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countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') AS success_count_30d,
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count() AS total_attempts_30d,
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sum(pa.duration_ms) AS total_duration_ms_30d,
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countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') / count() AS success_rate_30d,
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p.tau_proven AS tau_proven,
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p.n_proven AS n_proven,
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if(countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') / count() >= p.tau_proven
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AND count() >= p.n_proven,
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'proven', 'pending') AS status_30d,
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cityHash64(concat('proven|', toString(pa.obligation_class),
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'|', toString(pa.prover_used))) AS cert_id
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FROM verisim.proof_attempts AS pa
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CROSS JOIN (
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SELECT argMax(tau_proven, updated_at) AS tau_proven,
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argMax(n_proven, updated_at) AS n_proven
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FROM verisim.proof_attempts_cert_policy WHERE policy_id = 'default'
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) AS p
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WHERE pa.started_at >= now64(3) - INTERVAL 30 DAY
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GROUP BY pa.obligation_class, pa.prover_used, p.tau_proven, p.n_proven;
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-- W9: Revocation signal — pairs where all-time says PROVEN but
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-- recent (30-day) window says PENDING. These are certs that may need
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-- revocation notification or cert-holder quarantine.
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CREATE VIEW IF NOT EXISTS verisim.mv_cert_revocations AS
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SELECT
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all_time.obligation_class AS obligation_class,
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all_time.prover_used AS prover_used,
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all_time.status AS status_all_time,
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recent.status_30d AS status_30d,
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all_time.success_rate AS rate_all_time,
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recent.success_rate_30d AS rate_30d,
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all_time.total_attempts AS n_all_time,
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recent.total_attempts_30d AS n_recent,
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all_time.cert_id AS cert_id,
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'revoked' AS revocation_status
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FROM verisim.mv_proven_certificates AS all_time
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INNER JOIN verisim.mv_proven_certificates_recent AS recent
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ON all_time.obligation_class = recent.obligation_class
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AND all_time.prover_used = recent.prover_used
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WHERE all_time.status = 'proven'
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AND recent.status_30d = 'pending';

‎rust-core/verisim-api/migrations/06_cert_recent.sql‎

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-- SPDX-License-Identifier: PMPL-1.0-or-later
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-- W8: PROVEN cert with 30-day sliding window.
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-- W9: Revocation detection — compares all-time vs recent status.
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--
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-- mv_proven_certificates_recent: PROVEN status computed over the last
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-- 30 days only, not all-time. A cert's "recent status" can disagree
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-- with its all-time status when recent attempts have tanked the
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-- success rate — those are revocation candidates.
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CREATE VIEW IF NOT EXISTS verisim.mv_proven_certificates_recent AS
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SELECT
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pa.obligation_class AS obligation_class,
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pa.prover_used AS prover_used,
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countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') AS success_count_30d,
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count() AS total_attempts_30d,
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sum(pa.duration_ms) AS total_duration_ms_30d,
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countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') / count() AS success_rate_30d,
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p.tau_proven AS tau_proven,
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p.n_proven AS n_proven,
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if(countIf(pa.outcome = 'success') / count() >= p.tau_proven
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AND count() >= p.n_proven,
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'proven', 'pending') AS status_30d,
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cityHash64(concat('proven|', toString(pa.obligation_class),
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'|', toString(pa.prover_used))) AS cert_id
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FROM verisim.proof_attempts AS pa
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CROSS JOIN (
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SELECT argMax(tau_proven, updated_at) AS tau_proven,
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argMax(n_proven, updated_at) AS n_proven
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FROM verisim.proof_attempts_cert_policy WHERE policy_id = 'default'
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) AS p
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WHERE pa.started_at >= now64(3) - INTERVAL 30 DAY
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GROUP BY pa.obligation_class, pa.prover_used, p.tau_proven, p.n_proven;
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-- W9: Revocation signal — pairs where all-time says PROVEN but
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-- recent (30-day) window says PENDING. These are certs that may need
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-- revocation notification or cert-holder quarantine.
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CREATE VIEW IF NOT EXISTS verisim.mv_cert_revocations AS
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SELECT
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all_time.obligation_class AS obligation_class,
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all_time.prover_used AS prover_used,
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all_time.status AS status_all_time,
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recent.status_30d AS status_30d,
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all_time.success_rate AS rate_all_time,
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recent.success_rate_30d AS rate_30d,
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all_time.total_attempts AS n_all_time,
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recent.total_attempts_30d AS n_recent,
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all_time.cert_id AS cert_id,
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'revoked' AS revocation_status
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FROM verisim.mv_proven_certificates AS all_time
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INNER JOIN verisim.mv_proven_certificates_recent AS recent
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ON all_time.obligation_class = recent.obligation_class
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AND all_time.prover_used = recent.prover_used
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WHERE all_time.status = 'proven'
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AND recent.status_30d = 'pending';

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