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Macro validation dashboard for the Scarcity and Resilience investment thesis, updated automatically with Yahoo Finance data.
Composite indicator 0–100% calculated from 12 binary signals grouped by thesis pillar. Measures in real time whether the macro environment is favourable to the investment hypothesis.
| Status | Score | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 THESIS RUNNING | ≥ 65% | All pillars aligned |
| 🟡 MIXED SIGNALS | 40–64% | Partially favourable environment |
| 🔴 WEAK THESIS | < 40% | Defensive mode |
Technological paradigm-shift detector. Compares the monthly momentum of semiconductors (SOX) with copper:
| Status | Condition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 CONSTRUCTION ERA | SOX ↑ and Copper ↑ | Full thesis running |
| 🔴 DIVERGENCE · ALERT | SOX ↑ / Copper ↓ | AI miniaturising — reduce metals |
| 🟡 PHYSICAL SCARCITY | SOX ↓ / Copper ↑ | Strong metals, wait for SOX rebound |
| 🔴 CONTRACTION | SOX ↓ and Copper ↓ | Defensive mode |
AI Self-Replication
- 📡 SOX Semiconductors — proxy K and γ, forward AI capex
- 💻 NASDAQ Tech — global tech momentum
- 🤖 ROBO Robotics — Wave 2: physical automation
- ⚛ QTUM Quantum Computing — Wave 3/4: post-silicon
Digital Scarcity
- ₿ BTC momentum — programmed store of value
- ₿ BTC vs NASDAQ — Bitcoin relative strength
Energy / Grid
- ⚛️ Uranium (Cameco) — firm 24/7 energy for AI
- ⚡ XLU Utilities — PPAs with hyperscalers
Physical Scarcity
- 🟠 Copper — electrification and robotics
- 🥇 Gold — hedge against fiat debasement
Resilience
- 📈 Spread 10Y−13W — yield curve health
- 😰 VIX — implied market volatility
V(t) = Capital × (1+r)ᵗ × Φ_L(t) / Φ_L(0)
Φ_L(t) = 1 + K / (1 + e^(−γ·(t−t₀)))
Where Φ_L(t) is the logistic technology-adoption function that captures the non-linear growth acceleration when AI enters the self-replication phase.
The dashboard is regenerated automatically on every push via GitHub Actions. Macro data is downloaded from Yahoo Finance.
Jose Vilar · UOC Data Science · 2026