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NullSpec governance

NullSpec is the governance contract that pins the pre-committed null hypothesis (H0) and e-process recipe to an oracle/holdout lifecycle.

Lifecycle

  1. evidenceosctl nullspec create builds a canonical NullSpecContractV1 from calibration buckets (or operator-specified parameters).
  2. evidenceosctl nullspec install stores the contract in data-dir/nullspec/<id>.json.
  3. evidenceosctl nullspec activate rotates active mapping for (oracle_id, holdout_handle).
  4. Claims fail closed unless an active, unexpired, resolution-hash-matching NullSpec is pinned.

Parametric vs non-parametric

  • Parametric: ParametricBernoulli + fixed-alt likelihood ratio.
  • Non-parametric: DiscreteBuckets + DirichletMultinomialMixture, estimated from calibration buckets.

Signing and audit

Contracts carry created_by and signature_ed25519 over canonical bytes (excluding signature field). Install/activate operations emit governance records for ETL-side auditing.

This enforces the paper guarantee that the tested null is pre-committed and tamper-evident.