Fix Java upgrade notification flow telemetry and activation check

Addresses three follow-up improvements from v0.27.5 telemetry analysis (#5979):

1. Add hasCVEIssue field to upgradeNotification.show event so the 6
   (state x type) buckets can be split at the NOTIFY level.
2. Emit upgradeFlow.result success right after installExtension resolves
   on the outdated path (instead of only after reload acceptance, which
   was lost 81% of the time), wrap install in try/catch to label
   install-failed, and report reload acceptance as a separate
   reloadChoice event.
3. Replace the fixed setTimeout(2000) post-install activation wait with a
   15s polling loop to fix the 41% false activation-timeout rate.

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Author: FrankLiu4138

src/upgrade/display/notificationManager.ts

@@ -93,6 +93,7 @@ class NotificationManager implements IUpgradeIssuesRenderer {
                 sendInfo(operationId, {
                     operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeNotification.show",
                     extensionState,
+                    hasCVEIssue: hasCVEIssue ? "true" : "false",
                 });
 
                 const buttons = hasCVEIssue

src/upgrade/utility.ts

@@ -196,36 +196,53 @@ export async function checkOrInstallAppModExtensionForUpgrade(
             return true;
         }
 
-        await commands.executeCommand("workbench.extensions.installExtension", ExtensionName.APP_MODERNIZATION_FOR_JAVA);
+        try {
+            await commands.executeCommand("workbench.extensions.installExtension", ExtensionName.APP_MODERNIZATION_FOR_JAVA);
+        } catch (error) {
+            sendInfo(operationId, {
+                operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.result",
+                upgradeFlowResult: "install-failed",
+                error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error),
+            });
+            return false;
+        }
 
         if (state === "outdated") {
+            // Install completed — record success now; what the user does with the
+            // reload prompt is a separate UX concern that can be lost to dismissal,
+            // window close, or the reload itself swallowing telemetry.
+            sendInfo(operationId, {
+                operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.result",
+                upgradeFlowResult: "proceeded",
+            });
+
             // Extension was updated (not freshly installed) — reload required
             const reload = await window.showInformationMessage(
                 `${ExtensionName.APP_MODERNIZATION_EXTENSION_NAME} extension has been updated. Reload VS Code to start the upgrade experience.`,
                 "Reload Now"
             );
+            // Reload acceptance is decoupled from the install-success signal above.
+            sendInfo(operationId, {
+                operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.reloadChoice",
+                reloadChoice: reload === "Reload Now" ? "reload-accepted" : "reload-dismissed",
+            });
             if (reload === "Reload Now") {
-                sendInfo(operationId, {
-                    operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.result",
-                    upgradeFlowResult: "reload-accepted",
-                });
                 await commands.executeCommand("workbench.action.reloadWindow");
-            } else {
-                sendInfo(operationId, {
-                    operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.result",
-                    upgradeFlowResult: "reload-dismissed",
-                });
             }
             return false;
         }
 
         await checkOrPromptToEnableAppModExtension("upgrade");
 
-        // Wait briefly for the newly installed extension to activate
-        await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 2000));
+        // installExtension resolves on install completion, not when the extension's
+        // activate() has run, so poll for the target state instead of a fixed sleep.
+        const deadline = Date.now() + 15000;
+        let newState = getExtensionState(extensionIdToCheck);
+        while (newState !== "up-to-date" && Date.now() < deadline) {
+            await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 500));
+            newState = getExtensionState(extensionIdToCheck);
+        }
 
-        // Re-check if the newly installed extension is active and meets version requirement
-        const newState = getExtensionState(extensionIdToCheck);
         const canProceed = newState === "up-to-date";
         sendInfo(operationId, {
             operationName: "java.dependency.upgradeFlow.result",