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feat: add Hunch venue (parimutuel prediction market on Base, x402) #1150

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feat: add Hunch venue (parimutuel prediction market on Base, x402) #1150

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40 changes: 40 additions & 0 deletions core/COMPLIANCE.md
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Expand Up @@ -34,6 +34,43 @@ This document details the feature support and compliance status for each exchang
## Legend
- **Y** - Supported
- **-** - Not supported
- **E** - Emulated (backed by a non-native mechanism)

> NOTE: the grid above is regenerated by `generate:compliance` from
> `core/src/exchanges/*/index.ts`. The Hunch column below is documented inline
> until the next regeneration picks it up.

## Hunch

Hunch is a **parimutuel** prediction market on **Base** (USDC). Markets are
pool-based — there is no CLOB and no AMM curve; prices are *implied odds*.
Settlement is **x402 / EIP-3009 `transferWithAuthorization`** (the bettor's
wallet signs a USDC authorization; the relayer sponsors gas). Identity is
keyless — the wallet IS the account, so reads need no API key.

| Category | Function | Hunch | Notes |
| :--- | :--- | :---: | :--- |
| **Market Data** | `fetchMarkets` | Y | `GET /api/agent/v1/markets` |
| | `fetchEvents` | Y | No event tier — each market wrapped as a single-market event |
| | `fetchMarket` | Y | `GET /api/agent/v1/markets/{id}` |
| | `fetchEvent` | Y | Synthetic single-market event |
| **Public Data** | `fetchOHLCV` | Y | From research `oddsHistory` (flat candles) |
| | `fetchOrderBook` | E | Emulated: single level at the implied price, pool as depth |
| | `fetchTrades` | Y | research `oddsHistory` as the public tape |
| **Private Data** | `fetchBalance` | Y | `GET .../wallet/{address}/readiness` → USDC balance |
| | `fetchPositions` | Y | `GET /api/agent/v1/positions?wallet=` |
| | `fetchMyTrades` | - | Not exposed (use `fetchPositions` / proof) |
| **Trading** | `createOrder` | Y | Self-hosted Base **x402** money path; **market orders only** |
| | `cancelOrder` | - | Parimutuel pool — bets cannot be cancelled |
| | `fetchOrder` | - | Parimutuel — no resting orders |
| | `fetchOpenOrders` | Y | Always `[]` (no resting orders) |
| **Real-time** | `watchOrderBook` | E | Poll-based emulation |
| | `watchTrades` | E | Poll-based emulation |

`createOrder` accepts only `side: 'buy'` and `type: 'market'`; `outcomeId`
encodes the Hunch side as `"{marketId}:{side}"` where `side` is `yes`/`no` for
binary markets or the parimutuel bucket key for N-way ladder / date-window
markets. Bets above the $10 "simple tier" first fetch a price-locked quote.

## Compliance Policy
- **Failure over Warning**: Tests must fail if no relevant data (markets, events, candles) is found. This ensures that we catch API breakages or unexpected empty responses.
Expand All @@ -52,4 +89,7 @@ MYRIAD_API_KEY=...
MYRIAD_WALLET_ADDRESS=0x...
# Metaculus (required for API access — unauthenticated requests return 403)
METACULUS_API_TOKEN=...
# Hunch (reads are keyless; privateKey signs the x402 USDC payment on Base)
HUNCH_PRIVATE_KEY=0x...
HUNCH_WALLET_ADDRESS=0x... # optional; derived from HUNCH_PRIVATE_KEY when absent
```
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