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refactor(operator-trend): absorb reset_reentry tier into the recovery base (T3-2 phase 6e) #86

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Merged
saagpatel merged 1 commit into from
Jun 20, 2026
+38 −238
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refactor(operator-trend): absorb reset_reentry tier into the recovery base (T3-2 phase 6e) #86

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276 changes: 38 additions & 238 deletions src/operator_trend_closure_forecast_reset_controls.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1297,247 +1297,21 @@ def closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_recovery_for_target(
closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_path_label: Callable[[dict[str, Any]], str],
class_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_window_runs: int,
) -> dict[str, Any]:
matching_events = ordered_reset_reentry_events_for_target(
return _recovery_for_target_base(
target,
closure_forecast_events,
)[:class_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_window_runs]
recent_reset_reentry_side = "none"
latest_reset_index: int | None = None
for index, event in enumerate(matching_events):
event_reset_side = closure_forecast_reset_side_from_status(
str(event.get("closure_forecast_reset_reentry_reset_status", "none"))
)
if event_reset_side != "none":
recent_reset_reentry_side = event_reset_side
latest_reset_index = index
break

relevant_events: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
directions: list[str] = []
weighted_total = 0.0
weight_sum = 0.0
for event in matching_events:
score = float(event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_score", 0.0) or 0.0)
direction = normalized_closure_forecast_direction(
str(event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_direction", "neutral")),
score,
)
if (
closure_forecast_reset_side_from_status(
str(event.get("closure_forecast_reset_reentry_reset_status", "none"))
)
== "none"
and direction == "neutral"
and abs(score) < 0.05
):
continue
relevant_events.append(event)
directions.append(direction)
if len(relevant_events) > class_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_window_runs:
break
if direction == "neutral":
signal_strength = 0.0
sign = 0.0
else:
signal_strength = max(abs(score), 0.05)
sign = 1.0 if direction == "supporting-confirmation" else -1.0
freshness_factor = {
"fresh": 1.00,
"mixed-age": 0.60,
"stale": 0.25,
"insufficient-data": 0.10,
}.get(
str(event.get("closure_forecast_reset_reentry_freshness_status", "insufficient-data")),
0.10,
)
weight = (1.0, 0.8, 0.6, 0.4)[
min(len(relevant_events) - 1, class_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_window_runs - 1)
]
weighted_total += sign * signal_strength * freshness_factor * weight
weight_sum += weight

recovery_score = clamp_round(
weighted_total / max(weight_sum, 1.0),
lower=-0.95,
upper=0.95,
)
current_score = float(target.get("closure_forecast_reweight_score", 0.0) or 0.0)
current_direction = normalized_closure_forecast_direction(
str(target.get("closure_forecast_reweight_direction", "neutral")),
current_score,
)
current_freshness = str(
target.get("closure_forecast_reset_reentry_freshness_status", "insufficient-data")
)
current_momentum = str(target.get("closure_forecast_momentum_status", "insufficient-data"))
current_stability = str(target.get("closure_forecast_stability_status", "watch"))
earlier_majority = closure_forecast_direction_majority(directions[1:])
local_noise = target_specific_normalization_noise(target, transition_history_meta)
direction_reversing = closure_forecast_direction_reversing(
current_direction,
earlier_majority,
)
opposes_reset = (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "confirmation"
and current_direction == "supporting-clearance"
) or (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "clearance"
and current_direction == "supporting-confirmation"
)
aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset = 0
if latest_reset_index is not None and latest_reset_index > 0:
for event in matching_events[:latest_reset_index]:
score = float(event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_score", 0.0) or 0.0)
direction = normalized_closure_forecast_direction(
str(event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_direction", "neutral")),
score,
)
event_side = (
"confirmation"
if direction == "supporting-confirmation"
else "clearance"
if direction == "supporting-clearance"
else "none"
)
if (
event_side == recent_reset_reentry_side
and event.get(
"closure_forecast_reset_reentry_freshness_status",
"insufficient-data",
)
== "fresh"
):
aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset += 1
current_side = (
"confirmation"
if current_direction == "supporting-confirmation"
else "clearance"
if current_direction == "supporting-clearance"
else "none"
)
current_event_already_counted = any(
event.get("generated_at", "") == ""
and float(event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_score", 0.0) or 0.0) == current_score
and event.get("closure_forecast_reweight_direction", "neutral")
== target.get("closure_forecast_reweight_direction", "neutral")
for event in matching_events[: latest_reset_index or 0]
transition_history_meta,
spec=_RESET_REENTRY_RECOVERY_SPEC,
ordered_reset_reentry_events_for_target=ordered_reset_reentry_events_for_target,
closure_forecast_reset_side_from_status=closure_forecast_reset_side_from_status,
normalized_closure_forecast_direction=normalized_closure_forecast_direction,
clamp_round=clamp_round,
closure_forecast_direction_majority=closure_forecast_direction_majority,
target_specific_normalization_noise=target_specific_normalization_noise,
closure_forecast_direction_reversing=closure_forecast_direction_reversing,
path_label=closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_path_label,
window_runs=class_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_window_runs,
)
if (
current_side == recent_reset_reentry_side
and current_freshness == "fresh"
and not current_event_already_counted
):
aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset += 1

if len(relevant_events) < 2 or recent_reset_reentry_side == "none":
recovery_status = "none"
elif local_noise and current_direction == "supporting-confirmation":
recovery_status = "blocked"
elif opposes_reset or direction_reversing:
recovery_status = "reversing"
elif (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "confirmation"
and current_direction == "supporting-confirmation"
and current_freshness == "fresh"
and recovery_score >= 0.25
and current_stability != "oscillating"
):
recovery_status = "rebuilding-confirmation-reentry"
elif (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "clearance"
and current_direction == "supporting-clearance"
and current_freshness == "fresh"
and recovery_score <= -0.25
and current_stability != "oscillating"
):
recovery_status = "rebuilding-clearance-reentry"
elif (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "confirmation"
and current_direction == "supporting-confirmation"
and current_freshness in {"fresh", "mixed-age"}
and recovery_score >= 0.15
):
recovery_status = "recovering-confirmation-reentry-reset"
elif (
recent_reset_reentry_side == "clearance"
and current_direction == "supporting-clearance"
and current_freshness in {"fresh", "mixed-age"}
and recovery_score <= -0.15
):
recovery_status = "recovering-clearance-reentry-reset"
else:
recovery_status = "none"

if (
recovery_status == "rebuilding-confirmation-reentry"
and current_freshness == "fresh"
and current_momentum == "sustained-confirmation"
and current_stability == "stable"
and not local_noise
and aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset >= 2
):
rebuild_status = "rebuilt-confirmation-reentry"
rebuild_reason = (
"Fresh confirmation-side follow-through has rebuilt stronger "
"confirmation-side reset re-entry."
)
elif (
recovery_status == "rebuilding-clearance-reentry"
and current_freshness == "fresh"
and current_momentum == "sustained-clearance"
and current_stability == "stable"
and aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset >= 2
):
rebuild_status = "rebuilt-clearance-reentry"
rebuild_reason = (
"Fresh clearance-side pressure has rebuilt stronger clearance-side "
"reset re-entry."
)
elif local_noise and recovery_status in {
"recovering-confirmation-reentry-reset",
"rebuilding-confirmation-reentry",
"blocked",
}:
rebuild_status = "blocked"
rebuild_reason = (
"Local target instability is still preventing positive confirmation-side "
"reset re-entry rebuild."
)
elif recovery_status in {
"recovering-confirmation-reentry-reset",
"rebuilding-confirmation-reentry",
}:
rebuild_status = "pending-confirmation-rebuild"
rebuild_reason = (
"Fresh confirmation-side evidence is returning after reset re-entry was "
"softened or reset, but it has not yet rebuilt stronger reset re-entry."
)
elif recovery_status in {
"recovering-clearance-reentry-reset",
"rebuilding-clearance-reentry",
}:
rebuild_status = "pending-clearance-rebuild"
rebuild_reason = (
"Fresh clearance-side evidence is returning after reset re-entry was "
"softened or reset, but it has not yet rebuilt stronger reset re-entry."
)
else:
rebuild_status = "none"
rebuild_reason = ""

return {
"closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_recovery_score": recovery_score,
"closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_recovery_status": recovery_status,
"closure_forecast_reset_reentry_rebuild_status": rebuild_status,
"closure_forecast_reset_reentry_rebuild_reason": rebuild_reason,
"recent_reset_reentry_refresh_path": " -> ".join(
closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_path_label(event)
for event in matching_events
if event
),
"recent_reset_reentry_side": recent_reset_reentry_side,
"aligned_fresh_runs_after_latest_reset_reentry_reset": aligned_fresh_runs_after_reset,
}


def apply_reset_reentry_refresh_rebuild_control(
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -4109,6 +3883,32 @@ def _recovery_for_target_base(
)


_RESET_REENTRY_RECOVERY_SPEC = _RecoveryTierSpec(
reset_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_reset_status',
freshness_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_freshness_status',
restoring_confirmation='rebuilding-confirmation-reentry',
restoring_clearance='rebuilding-clearance-reentry',
recovering_confirmation='recovering-confirmation-reentry-reset',
recovering_clearance='recovering-clearance-reentry-reset',
restored_confirmation='rebuilt-confirmation-reentry',
restored_clearance='rebuilt-clearance-reentry',
pending_confirmation='pending-confirmation-rebuild',
pending_clearance='pending-clearance-rebuild',
reason_restored_confirmation='Fresh confirmation-side follow-through has rebuilt stronger confirmation-side reset re-entry.',
reason_restored_clearance='Fresh clearance-side pressure has rebuilt stronger clearance-side reset re-entry.',
reason_blocked='Local target instability is still preventing positive confirmation-side reset re-entry rebuild.',
reason_pending_confirmation='Fresh confirmation-side evidence is returning after reset re-entry was softened or reset, but it has not yet rebuilt stronger reset re-entry.',
reason_pending_clearance='Fresh clearance-side evidence is returning after reset re-entry was softened or reset, but it has not yet rebuilt stronger reset re-entry.',
score_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_recovery_score',
recovery_status_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_refresh_recovery_status',
next_status_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_rebuild_status',
next_reason_key='closure_forecast_reset_reentry_rebuild_reason',
path_key='recent_reset_reentry_refresh_path',
reset_side_key='recent_reset_reentry_side',
aligned_fresh_key='aligned_fresh_runs_after_latest_reset_reentry_reset',
)


def closure_forecast_reset_reentry_rebuild_reentry_refresh_recovery_for_target(
target: dict[str, Any],
closure_forecast_events: list[dict[str, Any]],
Expand Down