svb-cascade.cal

-- ================================================
-- Silicon Valley Bank: The 48-Hour Cascade
-- UC-039 | FETCH: 3,566 (EXECUTE — CRITICAL)
--
-- $209B in assets. 48 hours to insolvency.
-- $42B withdrawn in a single day — $1M every second.
-- The fastest bank run in U.S. history hit all six
-- dimensions before any risk model saw it coming.
--
-- Sense → Analyze → Measure → Decide → Act
-- ================================================

-- LAYER 1: SENSE
-- Identify entities with compounding risk signals
FORAGE banks
WHERE asset_liability_mismatch > 50
  AND uninsured_deposits > 85
  AND cro_vacancy IS "18 months"
ACROSS D5, D1, D3, D4, D6, D2
DEPTH 3
SURFACE svb_cascade

-- LAYER 2: ANALYZE
-- Trace the propagation from risk to bank run
DIVE INTO deposits
WHEN withdrawal_rate > 1000000
TRACE cascade
EMIT bank_run_signal

-- LAYER 3: MEASURE (DRIFT)
-- Quantify the gap between expected and actual
DRIFT svb_cascade
METHODOLOGY 85
PERFORMANCE 35

-- LAYER 4: DECIDE (FETCH)
-- Fetch = Chirp × |DRIFT| × Confidence
-- 63.4 × 50 × 0.75 = 2,378
FETCH svb_cascade
THRESHOLD 1000
ON EXECUTE CHIRP critical "6/6 dimensions compromised in 48 hours"
ON CONFIRM CHIRP warning "Review dimensional exposure immediately"
ON QUEUE SURFACE monitoring_report
ON WAIT PERCH ON segment:"banking"

-- LAYER 5: ACT
-- Output the full cascade analysis
SURFACE analysis AS json