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-**$p^k$**: Probability of $k$ successes — each of the $k$ successes is an independent Bernoulli trial with probability $p$
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**Breaking down the formula:**
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-**$p^k$**: Probability of $k$ successes — each success is an independent Bernoulli trial with probability $p$
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-**$(1-p)^{n-k}$**: Probability of $(n-k)$ failures — each failure is an independent Bernoulli trial with probability $1-p$
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-**$\binom{n}{k}$**: Number of ways to arrange $k$ successes among $n$ trial positions
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**Why this works:** Any specific sequence of $k$ successes and $(n-k)$ failures has probability $p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$ (by independence). Since there are $\binom{n}{k}$ such sequences, we multiply by the binomial coefficient.
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**The probabilistic view (Bernoulli trials):**
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Any specific sequence of $k$ successes and $(n-k)$ failures has probability $p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$ (by independence of trials). For example, the sequence "success, success, failure" has probability $p \cdot p \cdot (1-p) = p^2(1-p)$.
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This shows why Binomial "counts successes in repeated Bernoulli trials": it's built from the ground up using the Bernoulli probability $p$ for each trial.
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:::
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:::{admonition} Connection to Counting Techniques
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:class: note
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**The combinatorial view (counting techniques):**
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The binomial coefficient $\binom{n}{k}$ is a **combination**- it counts the number of ways to choose $k$ items from $n$ items when order doesn't matter (see [Chapter 3: Combinations](chapter_03.md#combinations-when-order-doesnt-matter)).
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The binomial coefficient $\binom{n}{k}$ is a **combination**that counts the number of ways to choose $k$ items from $n$ items when order doesn't matter (see [Chapter 3: Combinations](chapter_03.md#combinations-when-order-doesnt-matter)).
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In the binomial distribution context:
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- We perform $n$ independent trials
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- We want exactly $k$ successes (in any order)
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- The binomial coefficient counts **how many different sequences** of trials yield exactly $k$ successes
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- For example, with $n=3$ trials and $k=2$ successes: $\binom{3}{2} = 3$ represents the sequences SSF, SFS, and FSS (where S=success, F=failure)
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In our context, it counts **how many different sequences** of $n$ trials yield exactly $k$ successes. For example, with $n=3$ trials and $k=2$ successes: $\binom{3}{2} = 3$ represents the three sequences SSF, SFS, and FSS (where S=success, F=failure).
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This explains why the PMF formula multiplies the binomial coefficient by the probability of any specific sequence: the coefficient counts the sequences, while $p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$ gives the probability of each sequence.
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**Why we multiply:** Each of the $\binom{n}{k}$ sequences has the same probability $p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$. To get the total probability of exactly $k$ successes (in any order), we multiply the number of sequences by the probability of each sequence.
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Let's verify this works for our coin flip example (n=10, p=0.5):
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