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docs/Fervo_Project_Red.md.jinja

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# Fervo Project Red: Evaluating GEOPHIRES and Gringarten against Empirical EGS Data
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# Project Red: Evaluating GEOPHIRES and Gringarten against Empirical EGS Data
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ℹ️ The GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model parameters used in this evaluation can be interactively explored via the [Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example in the web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026).
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ℹ️ The GEOPHIRES parameters and result used in this evaluation can be interactively explored via the [Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example in the web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026). Their source code is also available on GitHub: [Fervo_Project_Red-2026.txt](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Red-2026.txt) and [Fervo_Project_Red-2026.out](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Red-2026.out).
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---
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This document[^author] evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) reservoir model by comparing it against real-world Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) empirical data from the Fervo Project Red site.
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This document[^author] evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) reservoir model by comparing
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it against real-world Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) empirical data from the Fervo Project Red site (Fervo Energy, 2026).
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For comparative context, it also includes the predictive temperature curve generated by Fervo's proprietary modeling.
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[^author]: Author: Jonathan Pezzino, Scientific Web Services LLC. GitHub profile: [softwareengineerprogrammer](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer).
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**Disclaimer: Independent Analysis:** This case study is an independent techno-economic evaluation developed by the author and contributors to the GEOPHIRES open-source project. It is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Fervo Energy. The author and contributors are not employees or agents of Fervo Energy, and this work has not been reviewed or approved by the company. All modeling assumptions, including those derived from public data sources, represent the independent interpretation of the author and the GEOPHIRES open-source community and do not constitute proprietary information or official company projections.
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**Disclaimer: Independent Analysis:** This case study is an independent evaluation developed by the author and
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contributors to the GEOPHIRES open-source project. It is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Fervo Energy.
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The author and contributors are not employees or agents of Fervo Energy, and this work has not been reviewed or approved
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by the company. All modeling assumptions, including those derived from public data sources, represent the independent
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interpretation of the author and the GEOPHIRES open-source community and do not constitute proprietary information or
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official company projections.
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## Methodology: Model Calibration and Parameterization
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The foundation of this validation lies in aligning the GEOPHIRES inputs with the physical realities of the Fervo Project Red site. To achieve this, the Gringarten analytical reservoir model was parameterized using published data and physical constraints derived from the site's initial reporting and recent updates.
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The foundation of this validation lies in aligning the GEOPHIRES inputs with the physical realities of the Fervo Project Red site.
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To achieve this, the Gringarten analytical reservoir model (Gringarten, 1975) was parameterized using published data
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and physical constraints derived from the site's initial reporting and recent updates.
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### Empirical Data Extraction
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The baseline empirical production data for this evaluation was derived from Figure 5 of Fervo Energy's report, [*Enhanced Geothermal Has Been Proven at Scale: Here’s What Two Years of Production Data Show*](https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/).
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The baseline empirical production data for this evaluation was derived from Figure 5 of Fervo Energy's report, [Enhanced Geothermal Has Been Proven at Scale: Here’s What Two Years of Production Data Show](https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/).
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*Original Published Figure 5: Measured Flowing Temperature:*
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![](_images/fervo-project-red-2026_figure-5_measured-flowing-temperature.png)
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1. [Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023)
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## References
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---
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Fervo Energy. (2026, April 13).
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Enhanced Geothermal Has Been Proven at Scale. Here’s What Two Years of Production Data Show.
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https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/
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Gringarten, A. C., Witherspoon, P. A., & Ohnishi, Y. (1975).
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Theory of heat extraction from fractured hot dry rock.
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Journal of Geophysical Research, 80(8), 1120–1124.
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https://doi.org/10.1029/JB080i008p01120
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Norbeck J.H. and Latimer T.M. (2023).
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Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal System.
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https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B
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## Footnotes
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tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Red-2026.txt

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# Case Study: Fervo Project Red (2026 Update)
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# Based on GEOPHIRES example Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023 (https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023)
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# with 2026 updates derived from https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/
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# Paper references are to "Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal System." (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023) (https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B).
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# See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Red.html
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# 2026 updates derived from https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/
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# Paper references are to "Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal System." (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023) (https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B).
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Reservoir Model, 1
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Number of Segments, 1
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Gradient 1, 76
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Number of Fractures, 65, -- Fervo estimates between 75 and 100 fractures were created. This value is de-rated in the model to account for the physical reality of imperfect flow distribution and uneven utilization across the entire stimulated rock volume.
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Number of Fractures, 65, -- Fervo estimates between 75 and 100 fractures were created. This value is de-rated in the model to account for the physical reality of imperfect flow distribution and uneven utilization across the entire stimulated rock volume (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023).
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Fracture Shape, 4, -- Rectangular geometry (Shape 4), representing standard transverse hydraulic fractures along a horizontal wellbore.
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Fracture Height, 300 foot, -- Estimated vertical propagation of the stimulated fracture network.
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Fracture Width, 365 foot, -- Set to match the distance between the injection and production wellbores, assuming a dipole flow field directly connecting the laterals.

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