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docs/Fervo_Project_Red.md.jinja

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**Overview:** This document[^author] evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES Gringarten reservoir model by comparing
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**Overview:** This analysis[^author] evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES Gringarten reservoir model by comparing
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it against real-world EGS empirical data from the Fervo Energy
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Project Red site released in April 2026.
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For comparative context, it also includes the predictive temperature curve generated by Fervo's proprietary modeling.
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| Fracture Shape | `{{ input_params['Fracture Shape'] }}` | {{ input_params_comments['Fracture Shape'] }} |
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| Fracture Height | `{{ input_params['Fracture Height'] }}` | {{ input_params_comments['Fracture Height'] }} |
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| Fracture Width | `{{ input_params['Fracture Width'] }}` | {{ input_params_comments['Fracture Width'] }} |
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| Fracture Separation | `{{ input_params['Fracture Separation'] }}` | {{ input_params_comments['Fracture Separation'] }} |
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| Fracture Separation | `{{ input_params['Fracture Separation'] }} meter` | {{ input_params_comments['Fracture Separation'] }} |
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.. raw:: html
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### Production Temperature: Measured vs. Modeled
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The charts below plot the measured flowing temperature over a roughly two-year period. Data points captured during early thermal conditioning and transient operations (e.g., shut-ins, flow-rate testing) are rendered in gray and excluded from the steady-state statistical alignment.
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The charts below plot the measured flowing temperature over a roughly two-year period, extracted as described in the methodology section.
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Data points captured during early thermal conditioning and transient operations (e.g., shut-ins, flow-rate testing) are rendered in gray and excluded from the steady-state statistical alignment.
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![](_images/fervo_project_red-2026_production-temperature-data-vs-modeling-1.png)
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However, numerical models present massive barriers to entry: they are largely proprietary, computationally intensive,
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and financially expensive. This heavy resource burden severely limits a developer's ability to run rapid parametric
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sweeps, broad sensitivity analyses, or thousands of Monte Carlo iterations—the exact techniques essential for
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sweeps, broad sensitivity analyses, or thousands of Monte Carlo iterations, essential techniques for
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financial risk assessment and project scoping.
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Furthermore, numerical simulators are highly sensitive to site-specific geological parameters (like precise natural
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fracture networks and stress regimes) that are rarely well-defined before millions of dollars have been spent on
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By contrast, the Gringarten model provides a highly accessible, rapid, and mathematically transparent alternative.
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As validated by the Project Red empirical data, it accurately captures the macro-level thermal drawdown dynamics
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necessary for robust baseline modeling. While its idealized uniform thermal sweep may represent a slightly optimistic
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upper bound for long-term (15-30 year) aggregate heat extraction, its computational efficiency and surprisingly
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upper bound for long-term (1530 year) aggregate heat extraction, its computational efficiency and surprisingly
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high predictive fidelity make it an indispensable tool.
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It allows developers and researchers to bypass the immense overhead of numerical modeling while still generating
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highly credible techno-economic evaluations.
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### Economic Modeling Framework (SAM Economic Model)
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Although this validation document focuses exclusively on reservoir thermal performance and power generation physics,
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Although this analysis focuses exclusively on reservoir thermal performance and power generation physics,
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the underlying GEOPHIRES simulation example incorporates the [System Advisor Model (SAM) Single Owner PPA Economic Model](SAM-Economic-Models.html).
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This replaces the deprecated BICYCLE financial model used in the previous Project Red [example version](#previous-versions-section).
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