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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: docs/FPC_HIIP_Analysis.md
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The foundational calculation for measuring thermal energy in a reservoir relies on the volumetric heat-in-place method.
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### Thermal Energy Physics
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The SEC filing determines the total thermal energy ($Q_T$) as the sum of the thermal energy of the rock ($Q_R$) and the pore fluid ($Q_W$). Because the Granitic Basement rocks of the Project Cape Area have little to no porosity, the pore fluid energy effectively drops out, allowing the equation to be simplified to:
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The SEC filing determines the total thermal energy (Q<sub>T</sub>) as the sum of the thermal energy of the rock (Q<sub>R</sub>) and the pore fluid (Q<sub>W</sub>). Because the Granitic Basement rocks of the Project Cape Area have little to no porosity, the pore fluid energy effectively drops out, allowing the equation to be simplified to:
**HIP-RA-X Alignment:** HIP-RA-X performs this exact calculation. The primary difference is input structuring: while the SEC model takes bulk density ($\rho_b$) and rock specific heat ($c_r$) as separate variables, HIP-RA-X expects them pre-multiplied as a single `Rock Heat Capacity` (Volumetric Heat Capacity).
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**HIP-RA-X Alignment:** HIP-RA-X performs this exact calculation. The primary difference is input structuring: while the SEC model takes bulk density (ρ<sub>b</sub>) and rock specific heat (c<sub>r</sub>) as separate variables, HIP-RA-X expects them pre-multiplied as a single `Rock Heat Capacity` (Volumetric Heat Capacity).
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### The Critical Adjustment: Recovery Factors
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To achieve a like-for-like comparison, we must account for differing operational philosophies regarding recovery factors.
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When evaluated using the deterministic 199°C baseline, HIP-RA-X produces an incredibly tight alignment with the SEC report's lower-bound thermal energy estimates.
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result ($10^{15}$ Joules) |
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result (10<sup>15</sup> Joules) |
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To directly validate against the SEC's Mean Estimate, a Monte Carlo simulation (`MC_GeoPHIRES3`) was executed over 1,000 iterations using a uniform distribution between 170°C and 250°C.
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result ($10^{15}$ Joules) |
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result (10<sup>15</sup> Joules) |
|**HIP-RA-X (Monte Carlo)**| Stored Heat (reservoir) Mean |**54,775**|
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|**HIP-RA-X (Monte Carlo)**| Stored Heat (reservoir) Mean |**55,076**|
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This successfully demonstrates that when supplied with identical bounding conditions, the HIP-RA-X volumetric engine perfectly mirrors the industry-standard probabilistic HIIP methodology.
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#### Monte Carlo Distributions
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The following histograms illustrate the uniform input distribution applied to the reservoir temperature and the resulting probabilistic output for stored heat.
While the raw thermal energy calculations align perfectly, translating that heat into electrical power introduces a stark methodological divergence between D&M and GEOPHIRES.
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: docs/FPC_HIIP_Analysis.md.jinja
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The foundational calculation for measuring thermal energy in a reservoir relies on the volumetric heat-in-place method.
14
14
15
15
### Thermal Energy Physics
16
-
The SEC filing determines the total thermal energy ($Q_T$) as the sum of the thermal energy of the rock ($Q_R$) and the pore fluid ($Q_W$). Because the Granitic Basement rocks of the Project Cape Area have little to no porosity, the pore fluid energy effectively drops out, allowing the equation to be simplified to:
16
+
The SEC filing determines the total thermal energy (Q<sub>T</sub>) as the sum of the thermal energy of the rock (Q<sub>R</sub>) and the pore fluid (Q<sub>W</sub>). Because the Granitic Basement rocks of the Project Cape Area have little to no porosity, the pore fluid energy effectively drops out, allowing the equation to be simplified to:
**HIP-RA-X Alignment:** HIP-RA-X performs this exact calculation. The primary difference is input structuring: while the SEC model takes bulk density ($\rho_b$) and rock specific heat ($c_r$) as separate variables, HIP-RA-X expects them pre-multiplied as a single `Rock Heat Capacity` (Volumetric Heat Capacity).
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+
**HIP-RA-X Alignment:** HIP-RA-X performs this exact calculation. The primary difference is input structuring: while the SEC model takes bulk density (ρ<sub>b</sub>) and rock specific heat (c<sub>r</sub>) as separate variables, HIP-RA-X expects them pre-multiplied as a single `Rock Heat Capacity` (Volumetric Heat Capacity).
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### The Critical Adjustment: Recovery Factors
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To achieve a like-for-like comparison, we must account for differing operational philosophies regarding recovery factors.
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ The HIP-RA-X inputs below were calibrated using the data provided in the D&M SEC
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When evaluated using the deterministic 199°C baseline, HIP-RA-X produces an incredibly tight alignment with the SEC report's lower-bound thermal energy estimates.
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result ($10^{15}$ Joules) |
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result (10<sup>15</sup> Joules) |
@@ -61,13 +61,21 @@ Because our HIP-RA-X run used a static, deterministic input of 199°C—which si
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To directly validate against the SEC's Mean Estimate, a Monte Carlo simulation (`MC_GeoPHIRES3`) was executed over 1,000 iterations using a uniform distribution between 170°C and 250°C.
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result ($10^{15}$ Joules) |
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| Model | Evaluated Thermal Metric | Result (10<sup>15</sup> Joules) |
This successfully demonstrates that when supplied with identical bounding conditions, the HIP-RA-X volumetric engine perfectly mirrors the industry-standard probabilistic HIIP methodology.
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#### Monte Carlo Distributions
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The following histograms illustrate the uniform input distribution applied to the reservoir temperature and the resulting probabilistic output for stored heat.
While the raw thermal energy calculations align perfectly, translating that heat into electrical power introduces a stark methodological divergence between D&M and GEOPHIRES.
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