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Adjust stimulation cost to ~M/well
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‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md‎

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@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-e
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| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
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| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal. Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.84 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe, D. and Witter. E. 2025. "2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update". https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2025/Akindipe.pdf?t=1740084555; Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal. |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor | 2 | Estimated cost of ~$1.5M per well falls within typical range of $0.5–2M |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor | 2.66 | Estimated cost of ~$2M per well. Typical range for Nth-of-kind projects may be $0.5–2M. |
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| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf |
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| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% |
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| Inflated Bond Interest Rate (debt annual interest rate) | 5.6% | |
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## Results
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $81.6/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 148–160 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9 |
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| Project capital costs | ~$4500/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 148–160 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9; Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 500 MW | 500 MW | https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Average Production Temperature | 198.9℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal; https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost Correlation | $3.96M/well | $<4M/well | Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc |
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| After-tax IRR | 25.85% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| Number of times redrilling | 2 | 1–4 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|--------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $83.5/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 148–160 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9 |
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| Project capital costs | ~$4600/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 148–160 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9; Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 500 MW | 500 MW | https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Average Production Temperature | 198.9℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal; https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well | $<4M/well | Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc |
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| After-tax IRR | 24.36% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| Number of times redrilling | 2 | 1–4 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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See [Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out)
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in source code for the complete results.

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