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docs/Fervo_Project_Red.md

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# Fervo Project Red
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# Fervo Project Red: Evaluating the Gringarten Model against Empirical EGS Data
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[Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example web interface link](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026)
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ℹ️ The GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model parameters used in this evaluation can be explored and executed via the [Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example in the web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026).
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This document evaluates the accuracy of geothermal production temperature modeling against empirical field data from the Fervo Project Red site. It compares measured flowing temperatures against two predictive models: Fervo's proprietary model and the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model.
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---
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This document evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) reservoir model by comparing it against real-world Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) empirical data from the Fervo Project Red site.
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For comparative context, it also includes the predictive temperature curve generated by Fervo's proprietary modeling.
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**Data Source & Methodology Notes:** The empirical production data evaluated here is derived from Figure 5 of Fervo Energy's report, [Enhanced Geothermal Has Been Proven at Scale: Here’s What Two Years of Production Data Show](https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/).
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It should be noted that this analysis contains inherent limitations: the data points were semi-manually extracted from
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the published chart using image processing techniques, which introduces minor digitization artifacts.
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Additionally, aligning the data for statistical analysis requires establishing a threshold between the initial
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thermal conditioning phase and steady-state operations.
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This boundary is an analytical judgment call necessitated by structural differences in the models: the Fervo curve
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appears to assume an idealized steady-state flow from inception, omitting the early thermal ramp-up phase entirely.
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Conversely, while the GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model does account for early transient heat transfer, its precision
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during this rapid ramp-up is inherently constrained by its temporal resolution (one simulation time step per month).
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## Production Temperature: Measured vs. Modeled
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docs/GEOPHIRES-Examples.md

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## Case Study: 500 MW EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station
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See documentation: [Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station](Fervo_Project_Cape-5.html).
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## Fervo Project Red: Evaluating the Gringarten Model against Empirical EGS Data
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See documentation: [Fervo Project Red: Evaluating the Gringarten Model against Empirical EGS Data](Fervo_Project_Red.html).

docs/index.rst

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:caption: Examples
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GEOPHIRES-Examples
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Fervo_Project_Red
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Fervo_Project_Cape-5
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Fervo_Project_Red
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.. reference/index

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