|
17 | 17 | </style> |
18 | 18 |
|
19 | 19 |
|
20 | | -# Fervo Project Red |
| 20 | +# Fervo Project Red: Evaluating the Gringarten Model against Empirical EGS Data |
21 | 21 |
|
22 | | -[Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example web interface link](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026) |
| 22 | +ℹ️ The GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model parameters used in this evaluation can be explored and executed via the [Fervo_Project_Red-2026 example in the web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Red-2026). |
23 | 23 |
|
24 | | -This document evaluates the accuracy of geothermal production temperature modeling against empirical field data from the Fervo Project Red site. It compares measured flowing temperatures against two predictive models: Fervo's proprietary model and the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model. |
| 24 | +--- |
| 25 | + |
| 26 | +This document evaluates the accuracy of the analytical GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) reservoir model by comparing it against real-world Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) empirical data from the Fervo Project Red site. |
| 27 | +For comparative context, it also includes the predictive temperature curve generated by Fervo's proprietary modeling. |
| 28 | + |
| 29 | +**Data Source & Methodology Notes:** The empirical production data evaluated here is derived from Figure 5 of Fervo Energy's report, [Enhanced Geothermal Has Been Proven at Scale: Here’s What Two Years of Production Data Show](https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/). |
| 30 | +It should be noted that this analysis contains inherent limitations: the data points were semi-manually extracted from |
| 31 | +the published chart using image processing techniques, which introduces minor digitization artifacts. |
| 32 | + |
| 33 | +Additionally, aligning the data for statistical analysis requires establishing a threshold between the initial |
| 34 | +thermal conditioning phase and steady-state operations. |
| 35 | +This boundary is an analytical judgment call necessitated by structural differences in the models: the Fervo curve |
| 36 | +appears to assume an idealized steady-state flow from inception, omitting the early thermal ramp-up phase entirely. |
| 37 | +Conversely, while the GEOPHIRES (Gringarten) model does account for early transient heat transfer, its precision |
| 38 | +during this rapid ramp-up is inherently constrained by its temporal resolution (one simulation time step per month). |
25 | 39 |
|
26 | 40 | ## Production Temperature: Measured vs. Modeled |
27 | 41 |
|
|
0 commit comments