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Fervo_Project_Red-2026 initial version derived from Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023 (WIP)
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*****************
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***CASE REPORT***
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*****************
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Simulation Metadata
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----------------------
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GEOPHIRES Version: 3.13.1
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Simulation Date: 2026-04-19
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Simulation Time: 07:42
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Calculation Time: 0.522 sec
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***SUMMARY OF RESULTS***
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End-Use Option: Electricity
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Average Net Electricity Production: 2.10 MW
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Electricity breakeven price: 30.27 cents/kWh
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Number of production wells: 1
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Number of injection wells: 1
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Flowrate per production well: 41.0 kg/sec
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Well depth: 2.3 kilometer
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Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km
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***ECONOMIC PARAMETERS***
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Economic Model = BICYCLE
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Accrued financing during construction: 5.00 %
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Inflation costs during construction: 1.41 MUSD
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Project lifetime: 10 yr
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Capacity factor: 90.0 %
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Project NPV: -16.16 MUSD
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Project IRR: -7.79 %
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Project VIR=PI=PIR: 0.43
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Project MOIC: -0.29
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Project Payback Period: N/A
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Estimated Jobs Created: 6
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***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS***
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Number of Production Wells: 1
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Number of Injection Wells: 1
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Well depth: 2.3 kilometer
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Water loss rate: 30.0 %
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Pump efficiency: 80.0 %
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Injection temperature: 54.7 degC
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Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model
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Average production well temperature drop: 3.8 degC
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Flowrate per production well: 41.0 kg/sec
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Injection well casing ID: 7.000 in
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Production well casing ID: 7.000 in
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Number of times redrilling: 0
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Power plant type: Supercritical ORC
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***RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS***
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Maximum reservoir temperature: 400.0 degC
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Number of segments: 1
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Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km
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***RESERVOIR PARAMETERS***
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Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model (Gringarten)
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Bottom-hole temperature: 179.42 degC
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Fracture model = Rectangular
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Well separation: fracture height: 160.00 meter
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Fracture width: 160.00 meter
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Fracture area: 25600.00 m**2
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Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input
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Number of fractures: 100
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Fracture separation: 10.00 meter
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Reservoir volume: 25344000 m**3
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Reservoir impedance: 0.3000 GPa.s/m**3
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Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3
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Reservoir thermal conductivity: 2.70 W/m/K
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Reservoir heat capacity: 1000.00 J/kg/K
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***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS***
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Maximum Production Temperature: 175.7 degC
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Average Production Temperature: 174.4 degC
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Minimum Production Temperature: 165.4 degC
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Initial Production Temperature: 173.5 degC
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Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 20.58 MW
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Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model
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Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 3.8 degC
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Total Average Pressure Drop: 11989.9 kPa
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Average Injection Well Pressure Drop: 537.6 kPa
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Average Reservoir Pressure Drop: 12914.1 kPa
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Average Production Well Pressure Drop: 342.2 kPa
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Average Buoyancy Pressure Drop: -1804.0 kPa
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***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)***
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Exploration costs: 3.62 MUSD
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Drilling and completion costs: 10.13 MUSD
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Drilling and completion costs per vertical production well: 3.02 MUSD
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Drilling and completion costs per vertical injection well: 3.02 MUSD
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Drilling and completion costs per non-vertical section: 1.80 MUSD
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Stimulation costs: 1.51 MUSD
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Surface power plant costs: 11.34 MUSD
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Field gathering system costs: 1.60 MUSD
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Total surface equipment costs: 12.94 MUSD
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Total capital costs: 28.21 MUSD
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***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)***
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Wellfield maintenance costs: 0.21 MUSD/yr
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Power plant maintenance costs: 0.45 MUSD/yr
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Water costs: 0.32 MUSD/yr
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Total operating and maintenance costs: 0.98 MUSD/yr
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***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS***
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Initial geofluid availability: 0.15 MW/(kg/s)
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Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 2.97 MW
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Average Total Electricity Generation: 2.91 MW
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Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 2.52 MW
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Initial Total Electricity Generation: 2.87 MW
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Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 2.16 MW
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Average Net Electricity Generation: 2.10 MW
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Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 1.69 MW
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Initial Net Electricity Generation: 2.06 MW
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Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 22.95 GWh
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Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 16.54 GWh
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Initial pumping power/net installed power: 39.43 %
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Average Pumping Power: 0.81 MW
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Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 10.19 %
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************************************************************
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* HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE *
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************************************************************
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YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW
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DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY
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(degC) (MW) (MW) (%)
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1 1.0000 173.51 0.8118 2.0586 10.0774
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2 1.0088 175.03 0.8112 2.1275 10.2825
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3 1.0106 175.35 0.8111 2.1418 10.3248
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4 1.0116 175.51 0.8110 2.1493 10.3467
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5 1.0122 175.62 0.8110 2.1543 10.3612
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6 1.0126 175.70 0.8110 2.1578 10.3714
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7 1.0127 175.71 0.8110 2.1583 10.3728
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8 1.0112 175.45 0.8115 2.1459 10.3359
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9 1.0044 174.27 0.8134 2.0912 10.1714
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10 0.9858 171.04 0.8184 1.9430 9.7127
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*******************************************************************
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* ANNUAL HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE *
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*******************************************************************
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YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF
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PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED
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(GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%)
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1 16.6 162.4 6.61 8.12
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2 16.8 163.4 6.02 16.29
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3 16.9 163.7 5.44 24.48
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4 17.0 163.9 4.85 32.68
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5 17.0 164.0 4.25 40.88
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6 17.0 164.0 3.66 49.09
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7 17.0 163.9 3.07 57.28
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8 16.7 163.0 2.49 65.44
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9 16.0 160.2 1.91 73.45
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10 14.4 154.2 1.36 81.17
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********************************
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* REVENUE & CASHFLOW PROFILE *
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********************************
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Year Electricity | Heat | Cooling | Carbon | Project
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Since Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | OPEX Net Rev. Net Cashflow
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Start (cents/kWh)(MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(cents/kWh) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(cents/kWh) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(USD/lb) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(MUSD/yr) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD)
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________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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0 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 -28.21 -28.21
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1 15.00 2.49 2.49 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.51 -26.70
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2 15.00 2.53 5.01 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.54 -25.16
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3 15.41 2.61 7.62 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.63 -23.53
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4 15.81 2.68 10.30 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.70 -21.83
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5 16.22 2.76 13.06 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.78 -20.05
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6 16.62 2.83 15.89 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.85 -18.21
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7 17.03 2.89 18.78 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.91 -16.30
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8 17.43 2.92 21.70 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.94 -14.36
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9 17.84 2.85 24.55 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.87 -12.49
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10 18.24 2.63 27.17 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.98 1.65 -10.84
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# Case Study: Fervo Project Red (2026 Update)
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# Based on GEOPHIRES example Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023 (https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023)
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# with 2026 updates derived from https://fervoenergy.com/enhanced-geothermal-has-been-proven-at-scale-heres-what-two-years-of-production-data-show/
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Reservoir Model, 1
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Reservoir Volume Option, 1
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Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per the paper phyllite + quartzite + diorite + granodiorite
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Reservoir Depth, 7600 feet, -- per the paper
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Reservoir Heat Capacity, 1000, -- [J/kg/K]
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Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 2.7
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Number of Fractures, 100, -- per the paper
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Fracture Shape, 4, -- per the paper
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Fracture Height, 160, -- per the paper
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Fracture Width, 160, -- per the paper (distance between wellbores assumes a dipole flow field)
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Fracture Separation, 10 meter
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Number of Segments, 1
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Gradient 1, 74, -- per the paper
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Plant Outlet Pressure, 1500 psi, -- per the paper
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Number of Injection Wells, 1
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Number of Production Wells, 1
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Well Geometry Configuration, 4
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Has Nonvertical Section, True
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Multilaterals Cased, True
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Number of Multilateral Sections, 2, -- Two parallel horizontal sections
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Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 3250 feet, -- per the paper
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Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 10, -- per the drill cost paper - works out to $400/ft
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Horizontal Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 10, -- per the drill cost paper - works out to $400/ft
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Production Flow Rate per Well, 41, -- =650 gpm per the paper - per the paper the maximum flow rate was 63 L/s but the range was 550-750 gpm
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Production Well Diameter, 7, -- per the paper
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Injection Well Diameter, 7, -- per the paper
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Well Separation, 365 feet, -- per the paper
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Injection Temperature, 75, -- per the paper 75 to 125 degF
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Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3, -- [degC]
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Reservoir Impedance, 0.30, -- per paper, matching pumping power report 500-1000 kW
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Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1
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Utilization Factor, .9
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Water Loss Fraction, 0.3
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Maximum Drawdown, 1, -- no redrilling considered
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Ambient Temperature, 8 degC, -- per the paper. Published ambient is 10.27 degC
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Surface Temperature, 8 degC, -- per the paper. Published ambient is 10.27 degC
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End-Use Option, 1, -- electricity as the main product
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Plant Lifetime, 10
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Power Plant Type, 2, -- supercritical binary cycle
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End-Use Efficiency Factor, .9
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Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80, -- per the paper
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Economic Model, 3, -- BICYCLE Levelized Cost Model
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Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.15
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Ending Electricity Sale Price, 1.00, -- essentially no limit as the rate can rise continuously with inflation
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Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.004053223, -- End up being about 2% inflation
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Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1
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Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .5, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Combined Income Tax Rate, .3, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Gross Revenue Tax Rate, 0, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .05, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Inflated Equity Interest Rate, .08, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Inflation Rate, .02, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Inflation Rate During Construction, 0.05
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Property Tax Rate, 0, -- Required for BICYCLE model
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Print Output to Console, 1
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Time steps per year, 10

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