commit

tecunningham · tecunningham · commit 2b6c77681e51 · 2025-11-06T12:28:28.000-08:00
diff --git a/_freeze/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth/execute-results/html.json
diff --git a/docs/index.html b/docs/index.html
@@ -258,7 +258,7 @@ <h3 class="no-anchor listing-title">
 </a>
 </div>
 </div>
-<div class="quarto-post image-right" data-index="1" data-listing-date-sort="1762416000000" data-listing-file-modified-sort="1762449911881" data-listing-date-modified-sort="NaN" data-listing-reading-time-sort="59" data-listing-word-count-sort="11782">
+<div class="quarto-post image-right" data-index="1" data-listing-date-sort="1762416000000" data-listing-file-modified-sort="1762460897666" data-listing-date-modified-sort="NaN" data-listing-reading-time-sort="60" data-listing-word-count-sort="11834">
 <div class="thumbnail"><a href="./posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html" class="no-external">
 
 <p class="card-img-top"><img src="posts/images/2025-10-10-08-14-31.png"  class="thumbnail-image card-img"/></p>
diff --git a/docs/index.xml b/docs/index.xml
@@ -35,8 +35,8 @@ The full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of gro
 <dt>Economists and AI people disagree.</dt>
 <dd>
 <ol type="1">
-<li><strong>Most economists expect 0.1–1.5%/year.</strong> The two exceptions are <span class="citation" data-cites="baily2023machines">Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023)</span> and <span class="citation" data-cites="korinek2024scenarios">Korinek and Suh (2024)</span>.</li>
-<li><strong>Most AI-people expect 3–30%/year.</strong> A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.<sup>1</sup></li>
+<li><strong>Most economists’ forecasts are 0.1–1.5%/year.</strong> The two exceptions are <span class="citation" data-cites="baily2023machines">Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023)</span> and <span class="citation" data-cites="korinek2024scenarios">Korinek and Suh (2024)</span>.</li>
+<li><strong>Most AI insiders’ forecasts are 3–30%/year.</strong> A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.<sup>1</sup></li>
 </ol>
 </dd>
 </dl>
@@ -142,7 +142,7 @@ The full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of gro
 <td>March 2025</td>
 <td><span class="citation" data-cites="erdil2025gate">Erdil et al. (2025)</span> (Epoch GATE model)</td>
 <td style="text-align: center;">+30%</td>
-<td>The website <a href="https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate">figure</a> showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 “default” path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate.</td>
+<td>The website <a href="https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate">figure</a> showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 “default” path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate. <br><br>However Ege Erdil <a href="https://x.com/EgeErdil2/status/1986500128954536246">says</a> <em>“i don’t personally predict 30% mean annual gdp growth in the US over the next 10 years … the model does with some reasonable parameter values, but my timelines for that kind of growth are longer, and there’s model uncertainty and so on”.</em></td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td>April 2025</td>
diff --git a/docs/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html b/docs/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html
@@ -235,8 +235,8 @@ <h1 class="title">Forecasts of AI &amp; Economic Growth</h1>
 <dt>Economists and AI people disagree.</dt>
 <dd>
 <ol type="1">
-<li><strong>Most economists expect 0.1–1.5%/year.</strong> The two exceptions are <span class="citation" data-cites="baily2023machines">Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (<a href="#ref-baily2023machines" role="doc-biblioref">2023</a>)</span> and <span class="citation" data-cites="korinek2024scenarios">Korinek and Suh (<a href="#ref-korinek2024scenarios" role="doc-biblioref">2024</a>)</span>.</li>
-<li><strong>Most AI-people expect 3–30%/year.</strong> A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.<a href="#fn1" class="footnote-ref" id="fnref1" role="doc-noteref"><sup>1</sup></a></li>
+<li><strong>Most economists’ forecasts are 0.1–1.5%/year.</strong> The two exceptions are <span class="citation" data-cites="baily2023machines">Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (<a href="#ref-baily2023machines" role="doc-biblioref">2023</a>)</span> and <span class="citation" data-cites="korinek2024scenarios">Korinek and Suh (<a href="#ref-korinek2024scenarios" role="doc-biblioref">2024</a>)</span>.</li>
+<li><strong>Most AI insiders’ forecasts are 3–30%/year.</strong> A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.<a href="#fn1" class="footnote-ref" id="fnref1" role="doc-noteref"><sup>1</sup></a></li>
 </ol>
 </dd>
 </dl>
@@ -342,7 +342,7 @@ <h1>Forecasts</h1>
 <td>March 2025</td>
 <td><span class="citation" data-cites="erdil2025gate">Erdil et al. (<a href="#ref-erdil2025gate" role="doc-biblioref">2025</a>)</span> (Epoch GATE model)</td>
 <td style="text-align: center;">+30%</td>
-<td>The website <a href="https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate">figure</a> showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 “default” path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate.</td>
+<td>The website <a href="https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate">figure</a> showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 “default” path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate. <br><br>However Ege Erdil <a href="https://x.com/EgeErdil2/status/1986500128954536246">says</a> <em>“i don’t personally predict 30% mean annual gdp growth in the US over the next 10 years … the model does with some reasonable parameter values, but my timelines for that kind of growth are longer, and there’s model uncertainty and so on”.</em></td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td>April 2025</td>
diff --git a/docs/search.json b/docs/search.json
@@ -1096,7 +1096,7 @@
     "href": "posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html",
     "title": "Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth",
     "section": "",
-    "text": "I’ve collected forecasts of AI’s effect on economic growth over 2025-2035.\n\nThe full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of growth in GDP, some GWP (gross world product), some TFP, some labor productivity. I’m also mixing forecasts for the US, EU, and World. Some forecasts aren’t explicitly over 2025-2035, but most are roughly that range. Please send me an email if you think I’m misinterpreting one of these.\n\nEconomists and AI people disagree.\n\n\nMost economists expect 0.1–1.5%/year. The two exceptions are Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023) and Korinek and Suh (2024).\nMost AI-people expect 3–30%/year. A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.1"
+    "text": "I’ve collected forecasts of AI’s effect on economic growth over 2025-2035.\n\nThe full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of growth in GDP, some GWP (gross world product), some TFP, some labor productivity. I’m also mixing forecasts for the US, EU, and World. Some forecasts aren’t explicitly over 2025-2035, but most are roughly that range. Please send me an email if you think I’m misinterpreting one of these.\n\nEconomists and AI people disagree.\n\n\nMost economists’ forecasts are 0.1–1.5%/year. The two exceptions are Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023) and Korinek and Suh (2024).\nMost AI insiders’ forecasts are 3–30%/year. A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.1"
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diff --git a/docs/sitemap.xml b/docs/sitemap.xml
@@ -118,6 +118,6 @@
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     <loc>tecunningham.github.io/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html</loc>
-    <lastmod>2025-11-06T17:25:11.881Z</lastmod>
+    <lastmod>2025-11-06T20:28:17.666Z</lastmod>
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diff --git a/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.qmd b/posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.qmd
@@ -27,8 +27,8 @@ I've collected forecasts of AI's effect on economic growth over 2025-2035.
 : The full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of growth in GDP, some GWP (gross world product), some TFP, some labor productivity. I'm also mixing forecasts for the US, EU, and World. Some forecasts aren't explicitly over 2025-2035, but most are roughly that range. Please send me an email if you think I'm misinterpreting one of these.
 
 Economists and AI people disagree.
-: 1. **Most economists expect 0.1--1.5%/year.** The two exceptions are @baily2023machines and @korinek2024scenarios.
-      1. **Most AI-people expect 3--30%/year.** A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.[^gate]
+: 1. **Most economists' forecasts are 0.1--1.5%/year.** The two exceptions are @baily2023machines and @korinek2024scenarios.
+      1. **Most AI insiders' forecasts are 3--30%/year.** A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.[^gate]
 
 [^gate]: I classified Epoch's GATE model (@erdil2025gate) as by "AI people", though the authors are a mixture of academic economists and people who work in AI.
 
@@ -67,12 +67,14 @@ More observations below.
 | Dec 2024         | @filippucci2024miracle (OECD)                                                                                                                      |              +0.25-0.6%               | *"main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity)."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
 | Feb 2025         | [Tyler Cowen](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/why-i-think-ai-take-off-is-relatively-slow.html)                           |                 +0.5%                 | *"I’ve gone on record as suggesting that AI will boost economic growth rates by half a percentage point a year."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  |
 | March 2025       | @ecb2025bergeaud (ECB)                                                                                                                                   |                +0.29%                 | *"We predict TFP gains of 2.9% in the medium run (say in the next ten years) in the euro area, equivalent to an additional 0.29 percentage points per year."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  |
-| March 2025       | @erdil2025gate (Epoch GATE model)                                                                                                                                    |                 +30%                  | The website [figure](https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate) showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 "default" path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |
+| March 2025       | @erdil2025gate (Epoch GATE model)                                                                                                                                    |                 +30%                  | The website [figure](https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate) showing Gross World Product shows that in 2035 "default" path hits approximately a 30% annualized growth rate. <br /><br />However Ege Erdil [says](https://x.com/EgeErdil2/status/1986500128954536246) *"i don't personally predict 30% mean annual gdp growth in the US over the next 10 years ... the model does with some reasonable parameter values, but my timelines for that kind of growth are longer, and there's model uncertainty and so on".*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |
 | April 2025       | @imf2025misch (IMF)                                                                                                                                |                 +0.2%                 |                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  *"We find that the medium-term productivity gains for Europe as a whole are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years."* |
 | May 2025         | [Jack Clark](https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/jack-clark/) (Anthropic)                                                                             |           +3-5%           | *"I think my bear case on all of this is 3 percent, and my bull case is something like 5 percent."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               |
 | June 2025        | @oecd2025filippucci (OECD)                                                                                                                               |         +0.4-1.3%          | *"annual aggregate labour productivity growth due to AI range between 0.4-1.3 percentage points in countries with high AI exposure ... In contrast, the estimated range is 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points in countries where these determinants of AI gains are less favourable (e.g. Italy, Japan)."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   |
 | Sept 2025        | @arnon2025projected (Penn Wharton Budget Model) |                +0.15%                 | *"Compounded, TFP and GDP levels are 1.5% higher by 2035."*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         |
 
+
+
 #        Qualitative Forecasts
 
 | date of forecast | author                                                                                                         | growth 2025-2035 | quote |

Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
`@@ -1096,7 +1096,7 @@`
`1096`	`1096`	`"href": "posts/2025-10-19-forecasts-of-AI-growth.html",`
`1097`	`1097`	`"title": "Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth",`
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`1099`		- "text": "I’ve collected forecasts of AI’s effect on economic growth over 2025-2035.\n\nThe full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of growth in GDP, some GWP (gross world product), some TFP, some labor productivity. I’m also mixing forecasts for the US, EU, and World. Some forecasts aren’t explicitly over 2025-2035, but most are roughly that range. Please send me an email if you think I’m misinterpreting one of these.\n\nEconomists and AI people disagree.\n\n\nMost economists expect 0.1–1.5%/year. The two exceptions are Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023) and Korinek and Suh (2024).\nMost AI-people expect 3–30%/year. A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.1"
	`1099`	+ "text": "I’ve collected forecasts of AI’s effect on economic growth over 2025-2035.\n\nThe full list of forecasts is in a table below. Some of the forecasts are of growth in GDP, some GWP (gross world product), some TFP, some labor productivity. I’m also mixing forecasts for the US, EU, and World. Some forecasts aren’t explicitly over 2025-2035, but most are roughly that range. Please send me an email if you think I’m misinterpreting one of these.\n\nEconomists and AI people disagree.\n\n\nMost economists’ forecasts are 0.1–1.5%/year. The two exceptions are Baily, Brynjolfsson, and Korinek (2023) and Korinek and Suh (2024).\nMost AI insiders’ forecasts are 3–30%/year. A notable exception is Andrej Karpathy who recently says he expects GDP growth to remain on historical trends.1"
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