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Author: tecunningham

_freeze/posts/2025-09-19-transformative-AI-notes/execute-results/html.json

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-Sep 30, 2025
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-    "text": "Too Much Good News is Bad News\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSep 30, 2025\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOn Deriving Things\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPremature Optimization and the Valley of Confusion\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 10, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPeer Effects, Culture, and Taxes\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 28, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBloodhounds and Bulldogs\n\n\nOn Perception, Judgment, & Decision-Making\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 27, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Influence of AI on Content Moderation and Communication\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDec 11, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe History of Automated Text Moderation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNov 18, 2023\n\n\nIntegrity Institute collaborators: Alex Rosenblatt, Jeff Allen, Ejona Varangu, Dave Sullivan, Tom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThinking About Tradeoffs? Draw an Ellipse\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 25, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, OpenAI.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nExperiment Interpretation and Extrapolation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 17, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAn AI Which Imitates Humans Can Beat Humans\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 6, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSushi-Roll Model of Online Media\n\n\nPreviously: “pizza model”, “salami model”\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSep 8, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHow Much has Social Media affected Polarization?\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAug 7, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Paradox of Small Effects\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAug 2, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRanking by Engagement\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 8, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSocial Media Suspensions of Prominent Accounts\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJan 31, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOptimal Coronavirus Policy Should be Front-Loaded\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 5, 2020\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOn Unconscious Influences (Part 1)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDec 8, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Production\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSep 27, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRepulsion from the Prior\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 26, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Repeated Failure of Laws of Behaviour\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 15, 2017\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSamuelson & Expected Utility\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nEconomist Explorers\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWeber’s Law Doesn’t Imply Concave Representations or Concave Judgments\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRelative Thinking\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 30, 2016\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNo matching items"
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-    "title": "The Economics of Transformative AI",
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-    "text": "Thanks to comments from Daniel Björkegren, Andreas Haupt, Philip Trammel, Brent Cohn."
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-    "text": "Footnotes\n\n\nIn 2024 Bloomberg reported on an OpenAI project to define five levels of AI capabilities (I worked a little on this). Also in 2024 Google Deep Mind released a 5-level framework, based on the percentile of human ability (level 2 means 50th percentile of skilled human).↩︎\nIt likely be impossible to approach a 100% win-rate, because (1) a fraction of people give noisy answers; (2) some easy queries have a unique correct answer; (3) some queries are ambiguous, meaning different people who ask the same query will have different preferences, and so no answer could ever get 100% of the responses.↩︎\nA nice illustration of the strength of learned preferences: Atkin (2015) shows that people who grow up eating rice will go hungry rather than eat wheat, and that people who grow up eating wheat will go hungry rather than eat rice.↩︎\nFrom the Windfall workshop “post-work society” scenario: “Universities pay people to attend and pursue knowledge among peers; community arts centers; compensate creators; sports leagues provide living wages for participants; childcare receives social recognition and compensation; community gardens and local projects offer meaningful paid work.”↩︎\nPrecise assumptions: suppose each worker has a given level of productivity at each good, and everyone spends the same fixed fraction of their income on each good (i.e. everyone has the same Cobb-Douglas utility function). This is just a standard Ricardian trade model (Wilson (1980)). As far as I can tell most labor economics models assume a single “skill” dimension with monotone comparative advantage, and don’t consider horizontal differentiation (e.g. lawyer vs doctor), but it seems to me this is important for AI’s effects.↩︎\nKorinek and Suh (2024) argue that as AI progresses it will causes wages to increase then decrease, but this is a consequence of a specific assumption: that AI will have identical relative productivity across tasks to humans, and so as AI becomes more capable the equilibrium price vector first moves away from, then returns towards, the vector of human productivities.↩︎\nAssuming computers are in sufficiently plentiful supply that we can ignore every other cost apart from their resource cost. If manufacturing computers requires resources then we could include their amortized manufacturing cost. If we have a scarce supply of computers for other reasons then of course this will keep human wages high.↩︎\nThe closest paper I know of is Agrawal, McHale, and Oettl (2019).↩︎"
+    "text": "Too Much Good News is Bad News\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 1, 2025\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOn Deriving Things\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPremature Optimization and the Valley of Confusion\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 10, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPeer Effects, Culture, and Taxes\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 28, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBloodhounds and Bulldogs\n\n\nOn Perception, Judgment, & Decision-Making\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 27, 2024\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Influence of AI on Content Moderation and Communication\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDec 11, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe History of Automated Text Moderation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNov 18, 2023\n\n\nIntegrity Institute collaborators: Alex Rosenblatt, Jeff Allen, Ejona Varangu, Dave Sullivan, Tom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThinking About Tradeoffs? Draw an Ellipse\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 25, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, OpenAI.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nExperiment Interpretation and Extrapolation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 17, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAn AI Which Imitates Humans Can Beat Humans\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOct 6, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSushi-Roll Model of Online Media\n\n\nPreviously: “pizza model”, “salami model”\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSep 8, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHow Much has Social Media affected Polarization?\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAug 7, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Paradox of Small Effects\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAug 2, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham, Integrity Institute\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRanking by Engagement\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 8, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSocial Media Suspensions of Prominent Accounts\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJan 31, 2023\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOptimal Coronavirus Policy Should be Front-Loaded\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 5, 2020\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOn Unconscious Influences (Part 1)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDec 8, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Production\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSep 27, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRepulsion from the Prior\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMay 26, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Repeated Failure of Laws of Behaviour\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 15, 2017\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSamuelson & Expected Utility\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nEconomist Explorers\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWeber’s Law Doesn’t Imply Concave Representations or Concave Judgments\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFeb 25, 2017\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRelative Thinking\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApr 30, 2016\n\n\nTom Cunningham\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNo matching items"
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